Dec 30, 2009 3:34 PM

Russia Plans to Save Earth From Rogue Asteroid; 'No Nuclear Explosions,' Space Chief Promises (Updated)

Vlad Putin, we’re sorry we ever made fun of you. In an interview today with Voice of Russia radio, Russia’s space agency chief said discussions would begin soon over a plan to save the world from a collision with a massive asteroid. It’s not clear how, exactly, the Russians plan to deflect Apophis, a chunk […]

Vlad Putin, we're sorry we ever made fun of you. In an interview today with Voice of Russia radio, Russia's space agency chief said discussions would begin soon over a plan to save the world from a collision with a massive asteroid.

It's not clear how, exactly, the Russians plan to deflect Apophis, a chunk of rock the size of two and a half soccer fields that was first discovered by astronomers in 2004. Anatoly Perminov, the space agency head, promised that there would be "no nuclear explosions" and that everything would be done "on the basis of the laws of physics."

Astronomers initially guessed that Apophis had a reasonably good chance of smashing into Earth on its first flyby; NASA now reckons that the chances of that have gone from slim (one-in-45,000) to almost none (four-in-a million). But despite the lower NASA estimate, the Russians aren't so sure. Perminov said the asteroid "will surely collide with the Earth in the 2030s."

Of course, that gives the Russians plenty of time to recruit a telegenic team of cosmonauts to neutralize the threat from Apophis. May we suggest an online contest, à la Miss Atom?

In fairness, the Russians aren't the only ones thinking about saving the Earth from asteroids. Alexis Madrigal of Wired Science has an excellent write-up of some of the options. The first is the Armageddon approach, knocking the asteroid off course with a nuclear blast or a collision. The second, Madrigal writes, is a “shepherding” operation that would slowly alter the asteroid’s trajectory in space. Either way, the reality is a bit less made-for-Hollywood: Asteroid-deflection would demand a lot of international cooperation.

And a lot of money. Perminov's take? It's worth the investment. ''People's lives are at stake," he said. "We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people."

UPDATE: Former U.S. astronaut Rusty Schweickart writes in to Danger Room with a few words of praise for Russia's space agency. "Perminov is right that the capability to deflect an impact threatening asteroid needs to be developed and demonstrated, and that that work needs to be done cooperatively with other space agencies," Schweickart e-mails. "And he should be loudly applauded for that."

But Perminov, Schweickart adds, is incorrect in assuming that Apophis seriously threatens to strike Earth. From his reply:

It has (based on current tracking data) only a 1 in 233,000 chance of passing through a very narrow region in space (a keyhole) as it passes by the Earth in 2029 that would cause it to impact 7 years later in 2036. That is quite a low probability of impact! And… with additional tracking coming available in 2012-2013 (when it comes back into sight of our telescopes) we are most likely to find that it, in fact, poses a zero risk of a 2036 impact. And, on the slim chance that it does still pose an impact risk, we have plenty of time *after that* to mount an internationally coordinated deflection campaign… if, and only if, needed.

Schweickart is the chairman of the B612 Foundation, which has advocated its own approach to asteroid deflection. For more information on that subject, you can also read up on the Association of Space Explorers website.

"Prove the capability by doing it," Schweickart adds. "But not on Apophis!"

[PHOTO: Wikimedia]

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