From macro to micro, from project fundamentals to asset allocation strategies, this cryptocurrency market outlook, which is widely circulated on Twitter, outlines industry trends and all hotspots worthy of attention.
Written by: Ansem
Compiler: Perry Wang
Overall market and underlying public chain outlook
In this cycle, we will see that the crypto market is much more mature than in previous cycles. In those blockchain networks and protocols that perform well, the value narrative and fundamental elements will play a greater role. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to be an active early user, so that you can experience each platform and really form a real understanding of which is better or worse. In addition, you will often get rewards for actively participating in each network. Many airdrops in the past year have brought 4-6 digits of revenue. Of course, it depends on personal contributions. For example, recall the UNI / 1INCH / dYdX airdrop. This year, we have seen that cryptocurrencies have been legalized (invested) by traditional financial institutions more than ever before, which has pushed a lot of funds into the cryptocurrency field. These investors, who were previously outside the crypto field, carefully select the investment targets and decide which long-term bets will be made. When these institutions allocate funds to crypto assets other than BTC, they need a process to evaluate the relevant crypto networks and determine which has the greatest advantage.
I think the underlying public chain will perform better than all other altcoins this year. One of the reasons is because they are one of the easiest ways to bet on the decentralized future of smart contract systems. All decentralized applications (DApps) will run on these underlying blockchain networks. Compared to betting on these underlying networks, it is more difficult to find a needle in a haystack to screen individual lending agreements or decentralized exchanges (DEX). many. You might think that the overall expected future value of these networks is much higher than that of Bitcoin (BTC), which is mainly used as a store of value. From the perspective of technical analysis, in my opinion, the breakthrough of the multi-year interval with the ETH/BTC currency pair and the formation of a consistent dome chart is the main trend of this year, and the market is showing the future direction. This is the only cycle so far in which BTC has not hit a historical peak. Since ETH has outperformed BTC in the past year, other L1 networks such as Solana, Avalanche, Terra (Luna), Fantom and Harmony have also performed significantly better than Ethereum. These networks are relatively new and have undergone fewer practical tests, but they are currently operating as faster and cheaper smart contract platforms. These platforms have gained a lot from hedge funds and other institutions and investors who bet on future success. funds. The founder of FTX, SBF, as a consultant to Solana, led this trend. Because of his previous close ties with traditional financial circles, and his huge influence as the CEO of FTX / Alameda Research, his name has played an important role in influencing high-net-worth individuals + traditional funds. Most traditional financial companies generally held negative views on cryptocurrencies in 2017, but the current situation is completely different. Only the list of PYTH partners clearly shows that public opinion has undergone an astonishing change. One of the most notable examples of traditional financial institutions (tradFi) entering cryptocurrencies is Jump Capital, which recently established its own independent crypto fund department. They even stated that they have been actively participating in PYTH and other blockchains (such as LUNA). ) Governance. It is likely that there are many other funds similar to Jump Capital, either waiting for the right opportunity to participate, or quietly rolling up their sleeves behind the scenes. Each L1 public chain has its own early investors and strong founders who are committed to building their own ecosystem: AVAX has Emin + 3AC, Terra Luna has Do Kwon + Novo. I think we will continue to see new capital and new capable developers enter the crypto field in the next few years, and as the dollar capital and talent pool grow, we will see a platform composed of different smart contract platforms. Users will be able to choose freely from the thriving ecosystem.
With this in mind, I think the base currency should be ETH, and transactions should focus on outperforming ETH. If you do anything on the chain (which should form the main part of your transaction), you need to use ETH as a starting point of reference. When buying NFTs, altcoins, and “bridge” assets, you should ensure that your performance outperforms holding ETH. Comparing the field of altcoins in 2021 with the field of altcoins in 2017 does not make much sense in my opinion, because the value at that time was very small compared to now. In the past, you needed BTC to buy any alternative currency on any exchange, and the only DEX we used at the time was etherdelta. The current altcoin ecosystem is much more complicated than it was 4-5 years ago, which is why the ALT/ETH chart is more important than ALT/BTC in my opinion.
I personally think that BTC is now the most important safe-haven asset in my portfolio, because I believe that as its scale grows and its market value gets closer to things like gold, its volatility will continue to show a downward trend. . At the same time, the institutions currently involved in investing in BTC are trying to accumulate BTC for a long time, and we will usher in a slow rise instead of a parabola like 2017, which is in the best interest of the institution. Whenever retail derivatives traders encounter a liquidation frenzy, we will continue to see BTC market corrections. I still think of ETH and other currencies as a transaction, and when I want to reduce risk and profit from a long position, holding BTC can be the best choice for this part of my portfolio. BTC is also very suitable for measuring the degree of correction of the entire market, because it is the easiest crypto asset to be used as a hedge asset, and whenever BTC is sold, the selling frenzy of a large number of altcoins is even more fierce. As a hard currency, BTC has no competitors, so BTC will continue to grow with the growth of encrypted assets, even if it does not lead other cryptocurrencies in terms of innovation. You should always isolate the BTC stack from active trading stacks that you have never been in contact with. You can accumulate your favorite L1 currency for trading based on your personal risk preferences. These assets are relatively risky because many Ethereum competitors have emerged in the past few years, but their influence has been severely weakened compared to four years ago, for example, TRON/DRGN/EOS. Due to the lasting influence of FTX / SBF / Alameda, I personally think Solana is the best choice after ETH, but I think this is just a subjective idea. The main concern for altcoins should be to examine the trend of its ALT/ETH currency pair. When trading altcoins in each L1 ecosystem, you should carefully study those ALT/L1 charts. For example, many SPL tokens in the Solana ecosystem have performed less than SOL for the whole year.
- In the next quarter, I expect this trend to continue, because these L1 smart contract platforms will narrow the gap with Ethereum in terms of the amount of funds locked in users and the network. At present, the market leaders in this type of L1 (SOL / AVAX / LUNA / FTM / ONE) have risen 5-10 times compared to the lows in July, and the market performance of ETH has fallen behind. In the short term, I think SOL has risen a bit too aggressively, while LUNA has recently fluctuated around its all-time high since earlier this year. It is expected that Solana will form a new consolidation band in this range, while other currencies will start to start new trends. If we do usher in the sideways consolidation of L1 altcoins for a period of time and ETH outperforms the market, I expect the developer activity/user activity/total lock-up (TVL) on the L1 altcoin network will continue to show an upward trend. If this situation comes to an abrupt end for any reason, I personally will reassess the argument that these currencies will perform better in the medium and long term. In the existing L1, Terra Luna and ONE may have the strongest rise in the short term, and AVAX is the strongest Ethereum competitor based on the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
Outlook on the benchmark currencies Bitcoin and Ethereum
- I am bullish on the trends of BTC and ETH in the next quarter. Both rebounded from their June lows for most of the summer and broke upwards in July in the third quarter. In the past month, we have seen the first sharp correction since a wave of rally since late June. We are expected to form a macro-high low in the near future, and then push it to a new high before the end of the year.
- With the approval of the ETF, BTC has a potential catalyst, but its value proposition has been verified by various types of institutional participants at this time. I don’t think the recent price impact will be as huge as in 2017. I personally think that given China’s policies, the crackdown on BTC mining/trading activities, and the fear of price peaks at the time, these fundamental events led to massive selling and capital outflows. We might have been unable to hold 30,000 in the summer. The low of the dollar. The adjustment of the geographical distribution of BTC mining activities should be good in the long run, because this activity tends to be more decentralized and dispersed to regions that are not subject to regulatory restrictions. If we see more policy decisions similar to El Salvador, this could be a major bullish catalyst. From a technical analysis point of view, the BTC price will hold the ~38,000-40,000 USD area and break the range high first. ~40,700 USD is the highest daily closing price of the three-month interval in the summer. I think the low is in place, but I won’t be surprised if it dives to $36,000-$37,000 at the beginning of the quarter. As long as our weekly closing price is not lower than the range high of ~42,000-43,000 US dollars, I am sure that it will continue to rise in the next few months and set a record high.
- Ethereum has implemented the EIP-1559 proposal upgrade. Its next main catalyst, the merger of the main network and the beacon chain and the plan to switch to the Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, will be postponed to the second quarter of 2022, but it is becoming clearer Yes, ETH is the main currency of the Internet. You need ETH to buy NFTs, trade on DEXs, use all loan agreements for deposits, etc. Although Ethereum is facing competition from other L1s, what we see is that the overall user base of cryptocurrency continues to grow, not that ETH users leave Ethereum and switch to other L1s. The bottleneck of high gas fees is a major obstacle for retail investors to embrace Ethereum, but the development of L2 solutions is quickly solving this problem. Even without these L2 solutions, many long-term ETH users are now wealthy, and the gas fee is just a drizzle for them. From an investment point of view, other L1s do have more room for upside, but because their plates are smaller and they have undergone fewer actual combat tests, they need to take more risks in order to obtain more returns. However, Ethereum It will definitely not disappear anytime soon. I am optimistic about ETH/BTC in the medium and long term, because I think the ceiling of smart contract platforms is higher than the upper limit of BTC as a store of value. I use ETH every day, and I rarely use BTC personally.
The DeFi Outlook of the Ethereum Ecology
- Since ETH once again hit a record high since 2017 in early March, the price ratio of all major DeFi blue chip tokens to ETH has been continuously falling. The market has clearly stated that the valuation of these networks does not represent their current usage. In contrast, the value of DeFi’s underlying network (ETH) is underestimated. Many ETH-DeFi altcoins and other dragging currencies have failed to reach record highs or even break through the highs since June. Last year we ushered in the first “DeFi Summer”, when AAVE, COMP, Uniswap and other platforms were really popular. At that time, DeFi-related tokens were the latest altcoins on the market, which is the main reason why they performed so well. At that time, DeFi did not exist on other smart contract platforms other than Ethereum, and now, many different chains have DeFi, and in many cases, these L1 have EVM compatibility, which may be a reversal of these DeFi assets. The value narrative of ETH’s downtrend, because as new capital enters the DeFi field, their usage may increase. The ratio of these tokens to ETH has now returned to near the low point since the beginning of the year. In addition to DeFi blue chips, there are many new innovations in DeFi that come entirely from brand-new protocols, such as OHM/SPELL. I think the biggest advantage of ETH-DeFi lies in these opportunities, and then in the field of decentralized derivatives. As some are cracking down on crypto trading, and many other non-KYC exchanges are reducing their withdrawal limits or imposing KYC, we will see users flow from centralized exchanges (CEX) to on-chain transactions. dYdX has shown the emergence of this trend, and the volume of decentralized perpetual contracts is comparable to some CEX with good liquidity. DPX is another decentralized alternative, dedicated to building an options platform. There are now platforms such as Mango Markets and PsyOptions on Solana. In the next few months and in 2022, user growth on all these platforms should accelerate.
- DeFi tokens have always played well as a hedge against other long/spot positions, but as we enter this new multi-chain phase (EVM DApp can be deployed across blockchains), this trend may soon be announced Finish. As I said before, I think the trend will be: new institutional capital enters the crypto field, and bets on the long-term success of DeFi + smart contracts. Among the available options, the best recurring betting target is the alternative L1 tokens. The market value is much smaller than ETH, and the current performance is better than Ethereum, but it is not so secure.
- For hedging options, it is now better to look for weaker L1 + smaller communities that do not have that much capital to enter, rather than ETH-DeFi assets. As alternative L1 captures the market share of new cryptocurrency entrants and gradually cannibalize ETH’s market dominance, I think this will continue to be the best deal.
- If you invest in ETH-DeFi tokens, I think it’s better to focus on newer protocols (which can provide value to users who didn’t exist before) + focus on current market trends. Now the popular trend of EVM is multi-chain/”bridge” projects and go Centralize derivatives instead of blindly buying so-called DeFi “blue chips”.
NFT market outlook
- In my opinion, NFT is the most interesting market segment, because they attract great interest from people who have no encryption background at all. Let people outside the encryption community join cute digital pictures + chain games, which is better than explaining P2P lending and finance. The advantages of system update iterations are much easier. I see four main trends here: on-chain and generative art with historical value, avatar NFT community + company entering the field, traditional artists and photographers selling personal works, and chain travel.
- From a purely historical point of view, the high value of the earliest and most influential works on the chain (such as Punks / ArtBlocks) by the natives of crypto is a springboard for others to have a strong interest in NFT at the end of last year. Since Ethereum is the first smart contract platform, from the perspective of traceability and early communities, as the field of encryption grows, the first batch of NFTs on its network will maintain high value. I would like to know whether this trend also applies to other alternative L1 public chains, which have just launched the first batch of NFTs on their platforms. Solana, Fantom, AVAX, Harmony and other projects now have some NFT projects and related NFT markets. Early users who have been using these platforms as their preferred ecosystem may think that the projects on these platforms are as valuable as the Ethereum family favors projects such as Punks. Looking at the generated art category, it is obvious that even if the cost of casting increases, Art Blocks is still the dominant platform. Later, popular works like Fidenza will be born, especially with the passage of time, the number of generated artists will increase.
- Probably the most popular trend is the retail-centric avatar NFT project. We have seen the great success of projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and how it has attracted the close attention of many sports superstars and other people who have nothing to do with cryptocurrency. We have also seen that many traditional companies try to use NFT for their own marketing. As more and more companies finally see the value of building an online community, Visa’s purchase of a Punk and the launch of a collection of classic characters on Solana by the virtual pet game station Neopets are just the beginning of this trend. In my opinion, NFT collection is by far the best way to guide the user community, because it has a much stronger sense of participation than sending people email lists or getting people to buy products in traditional marketing methods. When you build a community where everyone holds NFTs, it is much easier to assign value to these people, and they will also have more money to invest in the community. We have seen that projects continue to launch their own 10,000 sets of NFTs, and the company will become more creative in how to use NFTs for marketing. However, the main obstacle to this trend is to allow new users to obtain encrypted wallets, which is an easy user experience problem to solve. In this upcoming quarter, I think the leading avatar picture (PFP) projects, such as Punks / BAYC / Cool Cats / SMBs, and other projects will continue to perform well, but the most valuable thing may be to find the dust from the middle echelon projects For the pearls, its works have the opportunity to obtain higher prices in the repricing of the market. I am optimistic about Creatures, because I am optimistic about the founder of the project, 21-year-old New York artist Danny Cole, and their tremendous efforts so far to provide a good experience for coin holders. It seems that Cole’s long-term vision for the project is just his art. An extension of the work into the digital world. From a visual point of view, 0N1 Forces is still my personal favorite. From the Discord channel, the team also plans to build a community through face-to-face activities and airdrops to token holders. Generally speaking, the token performance of these PFP projects actually depends on how these projects create value for token holders and how to involve the community. On the other hand, there are always many scam projects in the NFT field purely to steal money, because people can easily cast anything. Please actively participate in Discord and other social media discussions, it should help you to identify the quality of the project, but it is the most cautious, it is best not to act rashly in the first week or so, carefully observe the development of the project in the market. I really want to see how these Metaverse worlds are constructed and the possible collaborations between teams. Projects that do well in these areas and create a cohesive experience will seize a huge advantage. Currently I only see the planning roadmap, but in the next year or so, we should see which projects can create value in this field.
- The chain game combines the NFT and the Play-2-Earn ecosystem, and also attracts many new users into the crypto community. The first to successfully reproduce game platform myths such as Roblox (the world’s largest multiplayer online creative game) or Fortnite, and also integrate a team that allows users to make money while playing, will be the most successful so far One of the encrypted DApps. As game developers enter this field, platforms like Solana and AVAX that allow many cheap microtransactions and high throughput should have advantages in this regard. Major funds are providing 9-figure incentive plans for hackathons to attract developers to build, which should accelerate the transition of high-quality software development engineers to the encryption field. The chain game Axie Infinity has achieved great success in the Philippines. It is currently the most profitable altcoin in the field. It is definitely the market leader of the meta-universe trend. You should pay close attention to the trend nodes of the industry or the dynamics of mergers and acquisitions. I think that in October, we will see the tokens of the meta-universe ecosystem begin to quickly regain their momentum, and the AXS pledge will be a huge catalyst. Parallel NFT card game is another leader in this field, although their game has not yet officially launched. Their works are really well combined with art. So far, they have also done a good job in cultivating communities. The fully subdivided system is very conducive to user participation and competition. In addition, their team has also attracted well-known investors, such as Chad Hurley from Youtube and so on. Other possible early winners include games like Star Atlas and Aurory, but the gameplay is not yet clear, and we can’t really understand the details. I have a list of small-cap projects that I need to do more research on before I can publish my long-term views (ILV / PYR / RAINI / YGG and some other projects). To get the most value from these games, I think you must invest early “before the market is convinced that they will succeed.” When people are still full of doubts, you will buy their assets at the best discount.
- Traditional artists launching their own NFT projects are also an important trend worthy of attention. I have already mentioned Danny Cole’s Creatures, but there will be more similar projects. Selling art through paper media is much more difficult than selling NFT, because everything in the latter can be easily accessed digitally. I don’t have much prediction about this trend, because I don’t know much about traditional art, but I do think that the counter-trend gimmick will disappear over time. When people see something they don’t understand for the first time, it seems to be their subconscious reaction.
Investment portfolio allocation in the fourth quarter worthy of attention
In October, my core position will be LUNA, because its Columbus-5 network upgrade will become a catalyst for its currency price to take off, and I will also bet on Axie, the leader in the meta-universe/game field. The outstanding performance of L1 and NFT are the two main trends this year, so the funds allocated in it are higher than in other areas.
Other funds are mainly invested in LP income farming and some specific market sectors. BTC and ETH will move slowly, so it is mainly a Scalping strategy rather than holding long-term volatility, until I think there is no higher beta return elsewhere. Once ETH regains its position at about $3,600, I think it will soon reach a new all-time high. BTC still faces a lot of resistance in the 55,000-58,000 USD box it needs to break through, so I will look for opportunities to rewrite the high point of the box in this range. Once it breaks through the $58,000 level, I worry that ALT/BTC will perform poorly and start to promote price discovery.
From a technical analysis point of view, LUNA has consolidated above its historical high since March for about 40 days and has risen by about 6 times from the bottom of the summer low. Once Columbus-5 goes live and all other projects in the ecosystem are launched, I expect it to break upward.
Axie is in a similar situation and has been consolidating for two months after the initial effort. In the correction market about a week ago, it retested its high since July and rebounded strongly.
My LP income farming / unilateral bet is distributed in multiple chains. Maintaining liquidity is one of the important reasons. Funds can be quickly transferred when the best opportunity arises. The two main recent examples are $TEDDY on AVAX and $JEWEL on Harmony. If you already follow these ecosystems, it is easier to find such opportunities.
For BTC and ETH, the stronger confirmation at the bottom will bring a breakthrough above 45,000 USD / 3100 USD.
Overall view of the market: It is expected that benchmark currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have a slow upward trend. Altcoins with strong fundamental catalysts outperform other altcoins, while dinosaur-grade altcoins and other altcoins that fail to deliver value The currency continued to underperform. The ideal rotation is to invest LUNA/Axie in price discovery in October, then switch to the benchmark currency, and then re-create the Solana position as the main holding asset before the first quarter of next year.
My knowledge of the market cycle nodes of NFTs is not as good as my knowledge of benchmark currencies and alternative currencies, so I only hold those NFTs that I think are undervalued until the market reprices them.
I will continue to pay close attention to the merger of Ethereum, because it will become a catalyst for ETH to outperform other L1s, and it may repeat the wave of ETH market from April to May 2021.
Look at the value of the project from a micro perspective
L1 currency
LUNA
- Columbus-5 network upgrade: September 29-30
- Integration with IBC and all other blockchains in the Cosmos ecosystem will be achieved by then
- Integrate Ozone Insurance
- Integrate Wormhole to build a “bridge” between Solana and Luna
- All LUNA used to mint $UST will be destroyed
- The overall theory is that UST will be used more on multiple chains, which will bring deflation to LUNA. After the Columbus-5 upgrade, many new projects will be launched in the Terra LUNA ecosystem, which will attract new users. Using Terra and Wormhole Bridge, it is easy to connect these projects with users. In my opinion, the project is currently not so popular in the Western Hemisphere because its main community is in the Eastern Hemisphere, but it should change in the coming months.
SOL
- It is not my main position at the moment, because I think other assets have more room for upside, but my personal overall trading indicator is aimed at outperforming Solana, because it has been the market leader throughout the year. I think that once Solana has completed its recent integration, this strong momentum will continue. The catalyst that may detonate the rally in the near future is the integration of EVM and the end of the current hackathon.
- Solana NFT also performed very well. Most of SOL’s recent gains have occurred after it hit a record high, and I think this is a good thing for people to return their earnings to the ecosystem. Solana Monkey Business is definitely the leader in this market, but there are many other projects that continue to be launched. I have not followed most of the new Solana NFT projects one by one, but paying close attention to the development trend on Twitter and the most popular trends in the market is a good way to determine which projects are the most promising.
- The development trend of chain games developed on Solana is very promising, which is why I think Aurorians will be one of the best bets.
- From a technical analysis point of view, while BTC is holding its position, the SOL price has not retreated further, and will consolidate above the $150 level before rebounding upward. If SOL continues to decline, this will be a good spot to do long opportunities, but considering investors’ strong interest in SOL, it is not yet known whether we will get this opportunity.
- I think there will be a consolidation around October, but we need to always pay attention to SOL, because I don’t want to miss its market launch because of ignorance.
AVAX
- Since mid-August, the AVAX currency price and the performance of micro-cap projects in the AVAX ecosystem have been very strong. JOE has always been a top performer and has risen about 100 times from the low point at the time. With the launch of the liquidity mining plan with AAVE, AVAX and JOE should continue to show an upward trend, but I think LUNA currently has more advantages than AVAX. In my opinion, AVAX is definitely the first block chain of EVM DApp, so users can be simple and easy to use, developers can easily transplant, is a very powerful factor to promote its currency price rise. Even if Arbitrum is launched, I don’t think there will be any major project loss on the AVAX chain. Whether zk rollup will change this situation is worth observing, but if the user experience of the ETH L2 solution and AVAX is not significantly different, then I don’t think the rollup will create a bear market for AVAX. I hold a small portion of AVAX and look forward to profiting from the new ecological release.
- Teddy Cash is one of the new loan agreements on AVAX. It has performed well in the past week or so. I think the currency still has not entered the eyes of a large number of investors because its market value is only about 25 million US dollars. In this project, users can use AVAX as collateral to borrow its stablecoin TSD, and there are currently some LP income farming farms in progress.
Harmony / $ONE
- It has the same high performance and short delay as AVAX / SOL / FTM, but the popularity is small and transparent. With a functional cross-chain bridge and compatible EVM, what Harmony lacks is community development and project development. This makes me feel that ONE is very similar to SOL in early February. At that time, the Solana blockchain was very fast, but there was only one DApp: Raydium. A few weeks ago, Harmony launched a $300 million ecosystem fund to stimulate development and encourage builders, so I hope to see more projects appear soon. DeFi Kingdoms DEX is one of my most lucrative bets in September. The team communicated with the outside world about future goals and has been effectively releasing updates. In addition to the practical use case of exchange/revenue farming, it is the only DEX I have seen that does a good job of creating a benchmark meta-universe world for users. I do not plan to leave the Jewel / ONE income farming farm for the time being. I want to wait and see how they develop games and how NFT interacts with the entire ecosystem.
Layer 0
ATOM
- If Cosmos can reap value from all projects built with the Cosmos SDK, then in the long run, the potential for Cosmos assets to rise is huge. There are already a large number of outstanding projects that have adopted their architecture to build, and now the focus is to connect them all through IBC, with the Cosmos Hub as the core. The value that money holders reap from Atom has been very small, and it has only recently changed slightly. Now that the blockchain based on the Cosmos SDK is becoming more integrated through IBC, it will be interesting to observe how this will affect the price of Atom currency, or what proposals are adopted in governance to change the structure. Cosmos Proposal #56 proposes to use the Cosmos Hub as a router connected to all IBC chains. This should be the main catalyst for its currency price to rise in the coming months. I have some positions in Atom/Osmo LP, and some Atom, but as the proposal is passed, I will seek to add other positions.
Decentralized exchange
dYdX
- Very simple theoretical design, attracting funds migrated from centralized exchanges, and belongs to the most profitable derivative DEX at present;
JOE
- Has become one of the best automatic market makers (AMM), and its market value will approach UNI & SUSHI in a short period of time;
OSMO
- It is more like a small and unknown project, but as the main AMM on Cosmos, it works well. As people learn more about IBC, it should be used more;
NINJA
- Small market, Solana DEX / NFT / chain game, if the team executes well, its market value ceiling is limitless;
DPX
- The decentralized option agreement is currently in the testnet stage, but I don’t think they have much competitiveness in this sector;
- Given that its market value is still only US$100-200 million, it is still a good cyclical investment target
Astroport [Coming soon]
- Columbus-5 will become the main AMM of the LUNA platform after the upgrade, and it has not yet been launched.
Multi-chain/bridge project
SYN
- Users in this field are currently chasing the best opportunities on different chains. A fast and easy-to-use “bridge” will be a very useful weapon;
- Synapse is one of the few ways to quickly retrieve funds from Arbitrum, and they also have the function of interacting with other chains + more construction will be done;
SCRT
- Secret Network is the first smart contract agreement that I saw on the mainnet with privacy as its main selling point. Their upcoming Supernova protocol update will implement IBC integration, similar to LUNA’s Columbus-5 update. Its currency price chart is close to its hoarding low range, so the main force has begun to build positions here, and it should be a while before people start to talk about this token.
- The project has tested the conversion of “bridges” from ETH to SCRT. “Bridges” are operating normally, but they do not provide any base currency when bridging, so you must obtain it from somewhere before you can unhide your assets.
REN
- Another “bridge” project, the principle is equivalent to SYN
Hedging/shorting items
DOGE
- It has always been one of the benchmark tokens with the weakest performance. The focus of retail investors has shifted from meme to NFT. This decline can also be seen in Dogecoins on other chains.
BNB
- The rise of other L1s has made many people forget BSC. BNB is still actively trading in Pancake Swap / Bakery Swap, but not as many as before, because BSC was the only cheap Ethereum alternative chain at that time;
- I personally believe that for the rest of this year, the decline of BNB relative to SOL / LUNA / AVAX will continue.
MATIC
- Similar to the theory of shorting BNB, other reasons include Arbitrum and other upcoming ETH L2 solutions are in full swing.
Income farming opportunities
JEWEL / ONE
- The main DEX on Harmony has not received much attention yet. They also plan to issue NFTs and create chain games that use ONE;
- Most returns are locked in July next year to offset the high APR;
- The APR of each epoch continues to decay, and the project is still in its early stages;
- One of the most creative DEX I have personally seen, with first-mover advantage + a different experience from other similar projects.
OSMO / ATOM
- Osmosis is one of the first chains to connect with the rest of IBC. Gravity DEX / mBridge will be able to connect IBC to Ethereum and other ecosystems at the end of the fourth quarter;
- The first major AMM on Cosmos is likely to be the main beneficiary of the Luna IBC connection in the Cosmos ecosystem.
NINJA / SOL
- Personally, I am very optimistic about the Ninja team, because they have created an excellent DEX and are working hard towards building an NFT market + integrated chain games.
- The team definitely has a set of development roadmaps, but as a small-cap asset, I think its upside potential is good.
- 在Orca 和Ninja 中获得双倍奖励，其资金池应该会继续持续约365 天，且无需担心无常损失，因为代币对是NINJA/SOL 而不是NINJA/USDC。
稳定币收益耕种农场
Rari Capital USDC Pool
- 23% APR
- 存入$USDC ，依据其收益聚合策略而获取回报
Anchor on Luna
- ~20% APR
- 存入$UST
OHM
- 我了解到这个项目真的已经很晚了，但他们已经将大约1.5 亿美元投入到其金库中，并拥有一个致力于长期发展的用户社区；
- 由于其市值现在超过10 亿美元，我认为对多数人（比如我）而言，很难忽视这一项目，其代币会在这一基础上继续加速上行；
- 观察一下Olympus Pro 推出后的运行情况会很有趣，但老实说，这个项目会飞得更高
- 这一唯一的利空因素是：其市值相比金库总资产的溢价现在相当大。
单边质押
xJewel
DPX
NFT
Punks
- 鉴于ETH 表现良好，Punks 应该会继续上涨。您可能不会再因为购买这些Punks 而获得100 倍的收益，但它们本质上就像在以太坊上购买房地产一样；
- 如果此时购买这些Punks，我个人认为，您应该计划多年持有。
BAYC
- 很明显是NFT 板块中仅次于Punks、排名第二的项目，从投资回报率的角度来看有点类似，您如果甘冒较大风险挖掘中间梯队项目，可能会获得更多收益，但BAYC 将保持价值，这是毫无置疑的。
SMB
- Solana 上人气最高的NFT，我认为其定价最终将接近于BYAC；
- 我认为，在当前价格基础上，在短期内涨势会放缓一点，因为其地板价刚刚从50 → 250 SOL，但从整个NFT 格局来看，它是最可靠的选择；
- 作为Solana 上主要的PFP NFT，相比以太坊上同类项目而言其价格被低估。
Creatures
- 拥有强大的社区，并与现实生活中的艺术家建立了出色的人脉关系；
- 持币者人数与代币总数之比~55% + 「大鲨鱼」奥尼尔等名人加入社区；
- 相对于其他相同质量项目~3 ETH 左右的地板价，其价格仍然相对便宜；
- 我个人持有其中一些稀有品，真的不打算很快出售，认为这些是目前PFP 项目中上涨潜力最大的项目。
Loomlock NFT
- Loom 的生态项目；
- 预期该项目会具有持久力，并且除了JPG 之外还有更多的东西转化为NFT，我认为，Loom 在培养社区和增加价值方面会做得很好；
- 我通过铸造得到了一些Loomlock NFT， 可能会在二级市场购买更多。
0N1 Forces
- 这是我个人从美学上最钟爱的NFT 项目，其中几张头像我可能会长期保留一段时间；
- 我对交易0N1 Forces NFT 不是很感兴趣，但在我的PFP 之外还有该项目一些其他的NFT，如果他们的盘子变得很大，我可能会转入其他较小的项目；
- 10 月第一周在洛杉矶为0N1 持币者举行首次线下面对面聚会；
- 其作品在第四季度会有空投。
FTM 上的Bit Umans / Ancestral Umans / Portalheads
- 对Fantom 上发布的首批NFT 之一进行廉价赌注，对这些项目的信念并不高，但考虑到那里没有太多竞争，认为投资回报率是不错的。
AVAX 上的Crypto Seals
- 在人们刚开始聚集时，我铸造了一些此类NFT，与FTM 上的操作理念相同，这是AVAX 上最早的生成项目之一，并且几乎没有任何铸造成本。
Harmony 上的Gen 0 Heroes
- 这些将与DeFi Kingdoms DEX 一起发布，希望在它们出现时铸造一些，因为它们还可以让您更早地解锁收益耕种奖励，并且将成为Harmony 上第一个值得注意的NFT。
Arweave
- Arweave 是最好的NFT 基础设施项目，其去中心化数据存储架构将支持未来的很多NFT 项目，这些项目希望将数据存储在AWS 或其他中心化服务以外的其他地方。与Filecoin 等其他数据存储项目相比，它的市值仍然被低估。
- 我个人持有很多其他项目代币，但这些是我主要的赌注，每周都有一个带有NFT 概念的新项目浮出水面，因此可能会继续跟踪其交易额+ 销售趋势，只是为了抓住这些机会
其他
- 我对大多数NFT 项目的了解，不如我对替代币生态系统的那么了如指掌，因此需要对这一板块做更多的研究，需要更仔细地研究：项目如何向用户进行空投并启动新的迭代
元宇宙项目
Axie Infinity
- AXS 是当前链游领域无可匹敌的领导者。在市场其他部分价格触底之前，它是第一个从6 月份低点强力反弹的山寨币，并且已经巩固盘整了几个月。
- 他们的仍在为用户提供价值，即使是与包括所有DeFi 替代币的协议相比，仍然是利润最为丰厚的协议。他们即将推出的质押应该是一个很好的催化剂，为下一个趋势走势铺平道路。
- AXS 的主要风险是随着它的人气不断爆棚，它如何处理扩展到更多用户的问题，我想要更深入研究他们对此有何计划。
Vulcan
- PYR 是我研究过的低市值游戏项目之一。老实说，对它我还没有像我对其他游戏那样深入研究，但他们正在构建一个完整的NFT DApp 生态系统和NFT 市场。我玩过其中一些游戏，从技术分析来看，其币价走势图表看起来很棒。
对明年的整体随想
问题一：所有资产大跌90%、出现多年熊市的可能性有多大？
- 我个人认为，随着加密资产的人气变得越来越高，这种情况越来越不可能发生，因为我们看到，当前流入加密领域的资金/ 用户超过以往任何时期。我认为，有太多被搁置的资金和积极的开发活动，导致价格不可能多年出现连续多年的跌跌不休。
- 我们看到今年衍生品溢价/ 未平仓合约（OI）过热+泡沫破灭，这些都下跌了约70+%，但之后我们只是横盘整理了三个月，然后又回升。由于替代币资产以如此快的速度变成抛物线，因此价格回撤通常非常陡峭。
- 自加密货币诞生以来的任何其他阶段，都没有发生这种情况，因为加密货币现在受到了公众的广泛关注，所以我相信，2022 年不会再度触及2021 年创下的低点。必须发生类似新冠肺炎疫情这样几十年一次的打击事件，才可能导致这种情况，导致严重的崩盘。我相信如果市场再次过热，-70% 回撤+ 再次横盘是可能的，但我认为在更大幅的上涨之前，不太可能出现这种情况。由于SBF 的公众形象，以及他一再积极地强调希望与监管机构合作，FTX 会成为核心话题，并吸引公众视野的关注，这对加密货币来说是一个巨大的福音，这也是我认为SOL 比其他L1 具有优势的另一个原因。从发展角度、公众认知角度、制度角度或监管角度而言，现在再将2017 年与2021 年进行比较是没有意义的。
- 加密作为一种资产类别的成熟，意味着只要经济健康，加密资产最终应该开始与标普500 指数一起上涨，加密的上涨空间比目前任何其他资产类别都要大得多，但即使它的规模已经赶上其它资产类别，正如我们在FAANG 等公司中看到的那样，加密仍可实现稳定增长。我相信，随着人们希望收获超越传统市场的利润，我们将会看到越来越多的机构/ 对冲基金进入加密领域，负责为高净值人士投资的专业人士必然会被问到：为什么他们没有对加密货币进行配资，这意味着：加密资产的波动性应该在未来几年开始收窄。
问题二：什么将成为2020 年代的杀手级应用？ 2010 年代是亚马逊、2000 年代初是Facebook，在元宇宙领域中会是什么样子的应用？如何吸引数以百万的非加密用户？
- 这是我经常回顾的问题之一，因为它帮助我在更长的时间框架内构想想法。我打赌，未来十年用户会涌入加密领域，将带来用户与技术交互方式的重大转变。
- 例如， 一个元宇宙/ 社交网络中，人们拥有一个包含所有NFT/ 艺术/ 数字土地/ 炫耀性（Flex）物品的公共地址；一个可以轻松用作储蓄账户的私人地址，利用USDC / UST 等稳定币产生收益；一个用于DEX 交易/ 其他交易的私人地址。所有这些都通过没有差别的用户体验实现连接，人们可以在其中相互发送消息。这个方面，值得思考的问题是：
- 如何在一个地方创建包含社交网络/ 银行/ 游戏的无缝体验？
- 能在什么平台上构建它？
- 将如何向新用户和数百万人推广这一应用？（通过）游戏化？（通过） NFT？
问题三：哪个没有讨论到的细分市场会在未来几个月/ 明年人气爆棚？
- 如果2018 年问这个问题，答案是DeFi；
- 如果2019 年问这个问题， 答案是NFT
- 我不确定下一个主要趋势是什么，但也经常重新思考这个问题。
总之，更泛泛而言，我想要花时间更详细了解L1 技术堆栈之间的差异。我的大部分时间都花在加密交易和开发上，所以我想在有时间的时候平衡一下。
来源链接： blknoiz06.substack.com
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