By Dan Oakes
With pressure on Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve parliament and hold an election increasing daily, it seems some sort of solution to the crisis enveloping the kingdom could be in sight.
Overnight, the army chief called for an early election, while the National Election Commission recommended that the ruling Democrat Party be dissolved, citing a failure to declare campaign donations.
These are big blows to the Prime Minister, who has repeatedly ruled out an immediate election, understandably claiming it would legitimise mob rule in a country with an unfortunate tradition of power changing hands at gun point.
However, the assumption that the army is on the brink of abandoning Mr Abhisit, fatally undermining his position, satisfying the red shirts and heading off further bloodshed, is not necessarily correct.
Firstly, the red shirt movement is by no means united, with a number of factions pursuing divergent aims.
Many of the red shirts are poor farmers from the north of the country, angry because they feel they have been left behind by Thailand’s economic progress.
It was these people who Thaksin successfully wooed with cheap healthcare and promises of land reform. Their resentment has festered since Thaksin was overthrown in a 2006 coup backed by the urban elite.
Many of the protesters The Age spoke to last week said the ousting of their democratically-elected champion in 2006 was their main point of grievance, and that they would go home if Mr Abhisit agreed to hold an early election.
Another faction is more hardline, and has been blamed for the storming of the Parliament by red shirts last week, and for a rash of grenade attacks on military and Government targets.
One source, with deep links in the military, the government and the red shirt movement told The Age last week that this hardline faction actively sought to provoke a brutal crackdown by the military, hoping that the repression would swing more Thais behind the red shirt movement.
Other red shirts are wealthy supporters of Thaksin, hoping that the Government will be forced to negotiate with the ousted Prime Minister in the hope that he will call off his red clad dogs. Under this scenario Thaksin would then be allowed to return to Thailand from his self-imposed exile in Dubai.
There are even, reportedly, former communist cadres among the red shirts, sidelined since their insurgency petered out in the 1980s, but hoping to stick a finger in the government’s eye once again. Not all of these factions will be satisfied with an early election, particularly as some of the more hardline leaders are subject to arrest warrants.
Most intriguing is a whispered about anti-monarchical thread running through the red shirts. In a country where you are warned not even to publicly discuss the subject of the monarchy, the emergence of a genuine republican movement would be a tectonic shift.
At the moment, the red shirts are careful to pay due deference to the king, going so far as to play jazz music composed by the king at their rallies. However, if they felt like they had been ignored by the king in favour of the military and other elites, their anger might embolden them to question the monarchy.
Secondly, there are murmurs that the army is not necessarily united. Army chief Anupong Paojinda retires later this year and is believed to have made clear that he doesn’t want to step down with the blood of Thais on his hands. This is probably the motive behind his call for an early election, and his public statement that he wants the crisis resolved without bloodshed.
However, sources in Bangkok told The Age that General Anupong’s deputy and possible successor, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, is at loggerheads with the commander.
If an early election was held, few doubt that pro-Thaksin parties would win. Sources say a pro-Thaksin government would never appoint conservative loyalist General Prayuth to the top job, giving him a strong incentive to ensure elections are not held until after the army succession process.
This would also ensure that the anti-Thaksin faction in the army remains in control until at least 2014, when General Prayuth is scheduled to retire.
Further complicating matters is the presence of Thaksin loyalists within the lower ranks of the armed forces — the so called ‘Watermelon’ soldiers, green on the outside and red in the middle. There have been numerous occasions in recent days when soldiers were seen shaking hands and joking with the red shirt protesters.
Footage shot during the bloody battle at Phan Fa Bridge on Saturday shows red shirt protesters actually protecting disarmed soldiers from other protesters intent on attacking them.
Incidentally, the police force is seen as hopelessly compromised by widespread loyalty to Thaksin, a former policeman himself, who significantly beefed up police powers.
So, there are factions in both the red shirts and the army in whose interests it is that the conflict rumbles on.
This adds a sinister dimension to emerging reports that the shooting at Phan Fa Bridge was begun not by people dressed in red shirts or army fatigues, but in dark civilian clothes. There is also the prospect that pro-military, royalist yellow shirt protesters, who wrought havoc on the streets of Bangkok last year, could re-emerge if concessions are made to the red shirts.
And as ordinary Thais wait nervously to see how the tumultuous situation will unfold, the one man who could swiftly bring the conflict to an end, Thailand's ailing 82-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, remains silent.
Dan Oakes is