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Replace Imperial paper with archive.org version as it's a 404 now
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ljl-covid committed Aug 12, 2021
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* [Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3789264) shows that the Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% against hospitalization at 28-34 days post-vaccination, while the effect of the Oxford/Astrazeneca (ChAdOx1) vaccine was 94%, although the age cohorts in the two vaccines were different, and the efficacy against hospitalization was similar for the two vaccines, at 81%, when looking at people over 80
* [Antibody Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2) has worse findings, B.1.351 in particular being worrisome in that this variant is not only refractory to neutralization by most NTD mAbs but also by multiple individual mAbs to the receptor-binding motif on RBD, largely owing to an E484K mutation, and it is very resistant to neutralization by both convalescent plasma and sera from people who received the Pfeizer and Moderna vaccines, 10 to 12-fold; [Sensitivity of infectious SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants to neutralizing antibodies](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01318-5) finds a 14-fold reduction with B.1.351, though again no significant difference with B.1.1.7, on sera from individuals vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech
* [FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines are effective per real-world evidence synthesized across a multi-state health system](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251623v2) is a preprint that analyzes more than 60000 individuals at Mayo Clinic, dividing them into a vaccinated cohort (with Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna) and an unvaccinated one, and retrospectively concluding there was 88.7% efficacy in preventing infection, i.e. a positive RT-PCR test at all, and hence likely also contagiousness, as opposed to just symptomatic cases, which was the benchmark of most of the vaccine trials
* [Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00528-6/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header) tries to make sense of the confusing dosing issues with the Oxford/Astrazeneca (ChAdOx1) vaccine, and provides some tentative evidence in favor of the UK choice of delaying the booster shot to 12 weeks after the initial shot
* [Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00528-6/fulltext) tries to make sense of the confusing dosing issues with the Oxford/Astrazeneca (ChAdOx1) vaccine, and provides some tentative evidence in favor of the UK choice of delaying the booster shot to 12 weeks after the initial shot
* [Meeting highlights from the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) 6-9 April 2021](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/meeting-highlights-pharmacovigilance-risk-assessment-committee-prac-6-9-april-2021) reports the EMA/PRAC investigating on "safety signals" due to blood-related adverse events with the AstraZeneca and the Janssen vaccines
* [Impact of vaccination on household transmission of SARS-COV-2 in England](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vaccination+on+household+transmission+of+SARS-COV-2+in+England.pdf/35bf4bb1-6ade-d3eb-a39e-9c9b25a8122a?t=1619551571214) was assessed by [Publish Health England](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_England), which found the likelihood of infecting another person with COVID (infectiousness) if someone has received Pfizer/BNT or Oxford/AstraZeneca is roughly halved even when the vaccinated person does get infected, as reported in [this abstract](https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1112.short)
* [Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1) shows that in the UK, vaccine effectiveness went down from 93.4% to 87.9% (with Pfizer/BNT162b2) and from 66.1% to 59.8% (with Oxford/AstraZenea/ChAdOx1), although the confidence intervals were large, and effectiveness went down further on people who had taken only one dose of the vaccine; this study doesn't cover effectiveness on severe disease, hospitalization or deaths, which [the UK surveillance data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments) state are mostly retained
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## Epidemiology
| Country | Sereprevalence | Highest-hit area | In health workers | Asymptomatics | Seroconversion | Source |
|---------|---------------:|------------------|------------------:|--------------:|---------------:|--------|
| England | 6% | London (13%) | 11.7% | 32% | 96.2% | [Imperial](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf) |
| England | 6% | London (13%) | 11.7% | 32% | 96.2% | [Imperial](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101042514/https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf) |
| Italy | 2.5% | Lombardy (7.5%) | 5.6% | 27.3% | N/A | [Ministry of Health](http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=5012) |
| Spain | 5% | Madrid (>10%) | 10.2% | 32.7% | 91.8% | [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931483-5/fulltext) |

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