Add "hindsight" study in Lombardy

This study shows that the epidemic started much earlier in Lombardy than the first positive case was officially determined, and possibly on January 1, 2020
ljl-covid · Apr 30, 2020 · cf8459e · cf8459e
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diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -180,6 +180,7 @@ You can read and follow [this self-triage tool](https://www.statnews.com/2020/03
 * [EuroMoMo](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/), publishing bulletins and detailed graphs of excess mortality in European countries; articles from [The Economist](https://web.archive.org/web/20200423005306/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries) and the [New York Times](https://web.archive.org/web/20200424161633/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) have articles on excess mortality, with the former in particular looking at specific regions like Lombardy, Madrid and New York City
 * [Imperial College's comparison of containment vs mitigation strategies](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) mainly with a view on the UK and US
 * [Suppression of COVID-19 outbreak in the municipality of Vo, Italy](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1), a study showing that in a fully locked-down town of around 3000 people, all of which were tested multiple times, 43% of the total cases were asymptomatic, but could infect others
+* [The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf) analyzes nearly 6000 laboratory-confirmed cases and determines the epidemic started much earlier than the first recognized case of February 22, with the first patient showing symptoms on January 1, and correctly predicts that "the number of critical cases may become largely unsustainable for the  healthcare system in a very short-time horizon"
 * [Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/07/science.abb4557.full), published on 8 April 2020
 * [CMMID traveller screening effectiveness simulator](https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/traveller-screening)
 * [CMMID repository of COVID-19 research](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/)
@@ -269,6 +270,7 @@ There is mixed advice on the use of masks by the general public, and the advice
 * [Paper estimating real infected population in Italy](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20036103v1)
 * [Ministry of Interior self-certification form for movement within the quarantine area](https://static.gedidigital.it/repubblica/pdf/2020/cronaca/moduloautodichiarazione.pdf) which needs to be filled in whenever leaving one's residence with information on where you're going and why
 * [Covid-19, ecco cosa spiega lo studio effettuato a Vo'](https://ilbolive.unipd.it/it/news/studio-crisanti-coronavirus-vo), un articolo pubblicato dall'Università di Padova
+* [CoVid-19: il virus era presente in Lombardia già il 1° gennaio 2020](https://ilbolive.unipd.it/it/news/covid19-virus-era-presente-lombardia-gia-1-gennaio), ancora dall'Università di Padova, su uno studio effettuato su quasi 6000 pazienti positivi
 * [Free online services for the quarantined areas](https://solidarietadigitale.agid.gov.it/#/)
 * [Translated Civil Protection press conferences](https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/tree/master/speeches/Italian-Civil-Protection) and [Prime Minister speeches](https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/tree/master/speeches/Italian-Prime-Minister)