How Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death could reshape the presidential campaign

By STEVE PEOPLES | Associated PressNEW YORK — A presidential campaign that was already tugging at the nation’s

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By STEVE PEOPLES | Associated Press

NEW YORK — A presidential campaign that was already tugging at the nation’s most searing divides has been jolted by the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, potentially reshaping the election at a moment when some Americans were beginning to cast ballots.

For months, the contest has largely centered on President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the biggest public health crisis in a century that has badly damaged his prospects for reelection as the U.S. death toll nears 200,000 people.

But in a flash, Ginsburg’s death on Friday added new weight to the election, with the potential that Trump or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, could pick a successor who could decide abortion access, environmental regulations and the power of the presidency for a generation.

  • FILE – In this April 6, 2018, file photo, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg applauds after a performance in her honor after she spoke about her life and work during a discussion at Georgetown Law School in Washington. The Supreme Court says Ginsburg has died of metastatic pancreatic cancer at age 87. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

  • FILE- In this Aug. 3, 1993, file photo, then-Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg poses in her robe in her office at U.S. District Court in Washington. Earlier, the Senate voted 96-3 to confirm Bader as the 107th justice and the second woman to serve on the Supreme Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg died at her home in Washington, on Sept. 18, 2020, the Supreme Court announced. (AP Photo/Doug Mills, File)

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  • FILE – In this Jan. 25, 2011, file photo, President Barack Obama hugs Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Capitol Hill in Washington, prior to delivering his State of the Union address. From left are, Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Anthony Kennedy, Obama, Justice Ginsburg and Justice Stephen Breyer. Ruth Bader Ginsburg died at her home in Washington, on Sept. 18, 2020, the Supreme Court announced. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, Pool, File)

  • The flag at the White House flies at half-staff Friday, Sept. 18, 2020, in Washington, after the Supreme Court announced that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died of metastatic pancreatic cancer at age 87. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

  • People gather under a mural of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the U Street neighborhood in Washington, Friday, Sept. 18, 2020, after the announcement that Ginsburg died of metastatic pancreatic cancer at age 87. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

With early voting underway in five states and Election Day just over six weeks away, Democrats and Republicans were largely unified late Friday in praising Ginsburg as a leading legal thinker and advocate for women’s rights. But strategists in both parties also seized on the moment to find an advantage.

Facing the prospect of losing both the White House and the Senate, some Republicans viewed the Supreme Court vacancy as one of the few avenues remaining for Trump to galvanize supporters beyond his most loyal core of supporters, particularly suburban women who have abandoned the GOP in recent years.

“It’s hard to see how this doesn’t help Trump politically,” said veteran Republican strategist Alex Conant. “Biden wants this election to be a referendum on Trump. Now it’s going to be a referendum on whoever he nominates to the Supreme Court.”

Trump said Saturday he would “most likely” nominate a woman to replace Ginsburg. A female nominee could serve as a counterweight of sorts to Biden’s choice of running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, who would be the first woman to serve as vice president.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., pledged to quickly bring to a vote whomever Trump nominates. But he faces potential division within his own ranks. On Saturday, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said she believes the winner of the Nov. 3 election should nominate Ginsburg’s replacement. The possibility that others might take that view — Cory Gardner of Colorado as well as Collins faces a rough reelection effort — is fueling optimism among Democrats that the vacancy could drive home the significance of the election to their base.

“The implications for Senate races could be profound,” said Democratic strategist Bill Burton.

“The presidential race will see some immediate churn as activists on both sides will be newly energized,” he continued. “The persistent question will be whether huge protests around the Capitol and the country will inflame such vigorous energy that it leads to awful clashes.”

McConnell, in a note to his GOP colleagues Friday night, urged them to “keep their powder dry” and not rush to declare a position on whether a Trump nominee should get a vote this year. He told them they should not lock themselves prematurely “into a position you may later regret.”

Biden, who has already pledged to appoint the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, told reporters late Friday that “voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice to consider.”

Democrats are enraged by McConnell’s pledge to move forward, especially after he blocked President Barack Obama from appointing a justice to replace Antonin Scalia nine months before the 2016 election. That decision cast a long political shadow, prompting Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor who mounted a spirited bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, to make expansion of the Supreme Court a centerpiece of his campaign. Biden rejected the idea.

Some Democrats privately concede that the Supreme Court vacancy could shift attention away from the virus, which has been a central element of Biden’s campaign.

Trump took the unprecedented step in 2016 of releasing a list of Supreme Court picks before he was elected, a move that was credited with unifying skeptical conservative voters to unite behind him. Republicans also believe that the high-profile debate over Trump’s last Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh, helped the GOP retain the Senate during the 2018 midterms, when the party lost control of the House.

The president, seeking to build the same type of energy that surrounded his 2016 bid, released another list of potential Supreme Court nominees this month.

But some Democrats said the political environment is already overheated, with partisan divides over everything from wearing a mask to curb the pandemic to addressing climate change. Ginsburg’s death, they say, may not change that.

“It’s already pretty ugly out there,” said Megan Jones, a Democratic strategist who worked for former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “I do not know how this does not become a fight of epic proportions.”

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Associated Press writers Andrew Taylor in Washington, Michelle Price in Las Vegas, Nicholas Riccardi in Denver and Bill Barrow in Atlanta contributed to this report.



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