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Singapore elections and lessons for China

While the wave of revolution that has swept through the Middle East and North Africa has clearly unsettled the leadership of China, the most sobering recent development is arguably the unprecedented surge in support for opposition parties in Singapore’s general elections

Loh Su Hsing (The Jakarta Post)
Fudan, China
Mon, May 23, 2011

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Singapore elections and lessons for China

W

hile the wave of revolution that has swept through the Middle East and North Africa has clearly unsettled the leadership of China, the most sobering recent development is arguably the unprecedented surge in support for opposition parties in Singapore’s general elections.

The People’s Action Party (PAP) won 60.1 percent of the vote, its worst performance since 1963. In addition, popular foreign minister George Yeo lost his seat to the opposition. PAP has dominated Singapore politics since its independence and the city-state is viewed as a curious example of an open economy with limited political freedom.

Often described as having a paternalistic government, Singapore has been in a state of political equilibrium and stability for a long time. What were the factors that led to the lapse in support for the PAP?

A troubled economy and lack of equitable wealth distribution are often cited as triggers for political change. Interestingly, there is mounting discontent with the government despite exceptional economic performance.

As a major financial center with strong pharmaceutical and electronic industries, the city-state enjoyed an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.47 percent in 2007-2010, registering an astonishing 14.5 percent growth last year, outpacing that of China, Brazil and India.

Singapore consistently ranks among the top destinations for foreign direct investment in the Asia-Pacific. With the unemployment rate for Singapore citizens and permanent residents (foreigners who are long-term residents in Singapore) at approximately 3 percent, the country has a population with the middle-class making up the majority. Going by Purchasing Power Parity, the GDP per capita of Singapore is ranked third in the world.

However, the rising costs of living and the influx of foreign labor have proven to be problematic. Of a population of 5.2 million, Singaporean citizens and permanent residents make up only 3.77 million. Despite the multi-ethnic composition of Singapore, integrating a migrant labor force of diverse origins has proven to be a formidable task. Singaporeans view both the transient migrant labor and permanent residents as unwanted competition for jobs and the main reason behind rising real estate prices.

The crux of the problem is that the one-party dominated government has been sustained primarily through an economic social contract and not by ideology or strong emotive allegiance.

Although the rising costs of living can be largely attributed to global economic forces, and the import of labor is necessary due to the low birth rates in Singapore (which the government has been unable to reverse despite various incentive schemes), Singaporeans are quick to shift the blame of any perceived economic hardship on the government. Support or in some cases, acquiescence to the incumbent leadership has always been contingent upon keeping the general populace in an economic comfort zone.

New media offer avenues to circumvent censorship, promote citizen journalism and facilitate real-time transmission of information. They also represent a low-cost way for parties that are not well-funded to reach out to the masses. As such, they are often seen as enabling tools for political change.

In the elections of 2001 and 2006, the Internet was already actively used by political parties and the public as platforms for discussions and dissemination of information, but it did not lead to the strong surge of support for opposition as witnessed in this election.

In Singapore, the new media have merely served a secondary role. The chief motivation behind the support for opposition stems from the desire to check the purported complacence of the incumbent government.

Notably, the youngest Singaporean voters in the elections this year were born in 1990. Young Singaporeans have grown up during a period of prosperity and relatively higher degree of media freedom. They are less nostalgic about the achievements of the PAP and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew in the early years of independence.

In this context, the hard-line statesman Lee is proving to be a liability during these troubled times for the PAP.

His ostensibly negative comments on Islam and insinuations of punitive measures for voters who vote against the incumbent party have not gone down well with the young populace. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s surprising apology for the oversights of the government reflects an awareness of the need to recalibrate the style of governance.

Singapore has long been a top destination for the academic training of Chinese civil servants due to its geographical proximity and admired approach to governance. The elections this year have clearly shown that the model of focusing on economic growth and governance based on an economic social contract and tough controls is not sustainable.

Legitimacy falters in the long-term when not affirmed through the process of political contest and support for the government has to stem from ideological affiliation and hard-earned trust.

This might serve as an invaluable case study for China.

The writer is an associate fellow at Chatham House London and a Singaporean PhD candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, People’s Republic of China.

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