SUPPORTERS of Julia Gillard are growing nervous about a spring leadership offensive, believing the Prime Minister could lose the majority support of caucus if the introduction of the carbon tax on July 1 and the billions in compensation is not the ''game-changer'' the government is banking on.
Parliament rises at the end of next week for the winter break and resumes on August 14.
There has been an increase in leadership chatter recently while Ms Gillard has been overseas, and one of Ms Gillard's key supporters acknowledged yesterday that backers of Kevin Rudd were ''circling''.
Following Ms Gillard's strong triumph over Mr Rudd in the February leadership ballot, about 20 members of caucus would need to shift to Mr Rudd to deliver him a majority and build a case for Ms Gillard to step down.
"Circling" ... supporters of Julia Gillard are nervous about another possible leadership bid by Kevin Rudd.Credit: Getty Images
One number cruncher told the Herald yesterday that he believed about 10 people to 12 people had shifted since that ballot, while the others still believed Ms Gillard deserved to test her theses.
The government is ramping up its case against the carbon tax scare campaign by the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, saying it will amount to nothing on July 1 when the carbon pricing scheme begins and people realise the world had not ended.
The plan is to remind people incessantly of Mr Abbott's predictions over the past year, and then shred his credibility.
Ms Gillard warned before going overseas that any recovery in the polls would not occur overnight but increasing numbers are pessimistic about whether there will be any significant recovery at all.
Illustration: Rocco Fazzari
If, when Parliament resumes in spring, there has been no discernible recovery in the polls, people on both sides of the equation believe critical mass could shift behind Mr Rudd.
Strategists on both sides also concede that a leadership change would most likely prompt a quick election and this, in itself, was acting as a deterrent for MPs who were wavering but did not relish the prospect of an election this year.
One of Mr Rudd's key backers said Mr Rudd, who has begun to lift his public profile, was still a reluctant starter. He did not want to take the leadership with a tight or messy ballot but preferred a seamless changeover with strong support across caucus.
''They are more enthusiastic than him,'' he said of some of those eager for change.
Complicating the picture is that if Ms Gillard fell to Mr Rudd, key ministers such as Wayne Swan, Tony Burke, Nicola Roxon and Simon Crean would be in a untenable position given the ferocity of their assaults on Mr Rudd in February.
The Opposition is preparing contingencies for a leadership change and an early election.
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