Stern letters from ISPs not enough to stop P2P use after all

Last year, the UK-focused Digital Entertainment Survey came to a shocking conclusion: 70 percent of people sharing copyrighted files on the Internet would change their piratical ways if they received a warning notice from their ISPs. This was music to the ears of the record business, but it couldn't last; this year, the 70 percent figure has plummeted to 33 percent.

The 2009 survey finds that UK file-swappers just aren't worried about warning letters alone anymore. The change may be due to the UK government's quite public pronouncements that "disconnection" of repeat offenders isn't going to happen, removing the implicit threat behind the warning letters.

Currently, some of the country's largest ISPs are voluntarily forwarding warning letters from the rightsholders to customers, but they are not passing subscriber information back to rightsholders—and they are not imposing any sanctions. That could change as the government gets involved in the debate; the key "Digital Britain" report that will shape government policy in this area and others comes out on June 16.

But with the government already on record as opposing disconnections, sanctions may have limited effect. That's certainly what the Digital Entertainment Survey authors think: "This drop appears to be explained by the fact that respondents this year were asked to consider the possibility of a communication containing no specific threat. Last year's figure of 70 percent can only be explained by an assumption by the respondents that the communication was a prelude to further action."

But, if disconnection were defrosted and put back on the Sanctions Sm�rg�sbord, "this would be effective in 80 percent of cases." In other words, the English would have to go French (although the French three-strikes law has run into severe problems of its own).

The survey was commissioned by media law firm Wiggin. Simon Baggs, a partner at the firm, said that "the findings of this report show that letter sending alone will not be enough, and that much more needs to be done if there is to be a real reduction in unlawful filesharing. That reduction is crucial if the business models identified in this report are to be allowed to develop."