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The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

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Doc #	Date	Subject	From	To
5211207	2011-07-03 14:48:06	[alpha] Note 40 UK Universities breeding grounds for jihadis internal use only	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Note 40 UK Universities breeding grounds for jihadis internal use only 2 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Weekly Port of New York/Newark Tactical Analytical Unit U.S. Customs and Border Protection VIGILANCE INTEGRITY SERVICE June 25, 2011 â€“ July 1, 2011 Significant Seizures and Arrests Port of New York/Newark CBP Officers Seize 221,040 Counterfeit Viagra and Cialis Pills - India (U//FOUO//LES) June 10, 2011: The CBP Air Cargo Team at Newark Liberty International Airport examined several Continental Airlines airway bills, targeted by CBP officers. The shipments were manifested as ladies cloths, peanuts, dry fruits, shawls, calendars, photo frames, spices and purses. An examination of the cargo revealed blue diamond shaped pills that were labeled as Sildenafil Citrate. Sildenafil Citrate is not a controlled substance; however, it is used in making Viagra. The pills were sent to the CBP Laboratory. The sample tablets were visually compared to the referenced Viagra tablets.
1962106	2011-03-30 12:55:34	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript) 28 March 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 They will say you are on the wrong road, if it is your own. â€” Antonio Porchi Stephane Deo Economist stephane.deo@ubs.com +44-20-7568 8924 Three key conclusions With emerging investor attention very diverted by events in the Middle East and commodity markets over the past couple of months, we thought it would make sense to return to some of the crucial issues now playing out on the European front, and thus we invited UBS chief European economist Stephane Deo to join the weekly EM call and provide an updated overview aimed at the non-specialist. What did we learn? Well, three things in particular: First, an underlying European recovery is very much underway. Wit
2866670	2011-06-22 05:10:03	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Daily Chart - If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Daily Chart - If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Comment Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Chart of the Day: If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1) 20 June 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 There are two ways of constructing a software design: one way is to make it so simple that there are obviously no deficiencies and the other way is to make it so complicated that there are no obvious deficiencies. â€” C. A. R. Hoare Chart 1. How China grows Contribution to overall GDP growth (pp) 12 Labor Capital 10 Total factor productivity 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Chart 2. How Brazil grows Contribution to overall GDP growth (pp) 12 Labor Capital 10 Total factor productivity 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: Various sources (see below), UBS
1215510	2011-06-22 05:10:03	Fwd: UBS EM Daily Chart - If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: UBS EM Daily Chart - If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Comment Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Chart of the Day: If China Is So Productive, How Come I Made All My Money In Brazil? (Part 1) 20 June 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 There are two ways of constructing a software design: one way is to make it so simple that there are obviously no deficiencies and the other way is to make it so complicated that there are no obvious deficiencies. â€” C. A. R. Hoare Chart 1. How China grows Contribution to overall GDP growth (pp) 12 Labor Capital 10 Total factor productivity 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Chart 2. How Brazil grows Contribution to overall GDP growth (pp) 12 Labor Capital 10 Total factor productivity 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: Various sources (see below), UBS estimat
1233435	2011-03-30 12:55:34	Fwd: UBS EM Focus - European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: UBS EM Focus - European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong European Recovery For Beginners (Transcript) 28 March 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 They will say you are on the wrong road, if it is your own. â€” Antonio Porchi Stephane Deo Economist stephane.deo@ubs.com +44-20-7568 8924 Three key conclusions With emerging investor attention very diverted by events in the Middle East and commodity markets over the past couple of months, we thought it would make sense to return to some of the crucial issues now playing out on the European front, and thus we invited UBS chief European economist Stephane Deo to join the weekly EM call and provide an updated overview aimed at the non-specialist. What did we learn? Well, three things in particular: First, an underlying European recovery is very much underway. With smaller
2852803	2011-06-24 17:36:47	[alpha] Fwd: LulzSec Release: DHS Evaluating Threats 2008-2013	burton@stratfor.com	frank.ginac@stratfor.com alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: LulzSec Release: DHS Evaluating Threats 2008-2013 This document is part of a collection leaked by the anonymous hacker collective known as LulzSec. Homeland Security Threat Assessment: Evaluating Threats 2008-2013 * 40 pages * For Official Use Only * 2008 -- Cordially, David Dafinoiu President NorAm Intelligence Mobile: 646-678-2905 david@dafinoiu.com dd@noramintel.com http://noramintel.com UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U ) Homeland Security Threat Assessment: Evaluating Threats 2008-2013 IA-0058-09 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U) Homeland Security Threat Assessment: Evaluating Threats 2008â€“2013 (U//FOUO) Prepared under the auspices of the Strategic Analysis Group, Homeland Environment Threat Analysis Division, Office of Intelligence and Analysis. Inquiries may be directed to SAG at 202-282-8165 or 202-282-8690. (U) This Assessment was approved by the Homeland
5467925	2011-12-12 12:31:03	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - South Africa Extravaganza (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - South Africa Extravaganza (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong South Africa Extravaganza (Transcript) 12 December 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 Once you can accept the universe as being something expanding into an infinite nothing which is something, wearing stripes with plaid is easy. â€” Albert Einstein Marie Antelme Economist marie.antelme@ubs.com +27-21-431 8649 John Orford Strategist john.orford@ubs.com +27-21-431 8651 Nothing too exciting, nothing too onerous What did we learn from last weekâ€™s EM call with South Africa economist Marie Antelme and South Africa equity strategist John Orford? First the bad news First, perhaps, the bad news. To begin with, South Africa has always been one of the slowest-growing major economies in the EM world on a structural basis, and weâ€™re just not looking for
5083969	2011-07-05 08:55:25	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Autos For Beginners (Transcript)	richmond@core.stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Autos For Beginners (Transcript) 630 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Autos For Beginners (Transcript) 5 July 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. â€“ Carl Sagan Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 Philippe Houchois Analyst philippe.houchois@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3474 Guoxi Chen, CFA Analyst S1460511020003 guoxi.chen@ubssecurities.com +86-213-866 8831 Autos ... and everything Regular readers of the EM product know that we place a lot of emphasis on the automobile sector â€“ in fact, our semi-annual Auto Theory of Everything (latest version published 23 February 2011) is one of the best places to take stock of the state of durable goods demand across the emerging world. As a result, we were very pleased to invite UBS global aut
1224915	2011-07-05 08:55:25		richmond@core.stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	630 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Autos For Beginners (Transcript) 5 July 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. â€“ Carl Sagan Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 Philippe Houchois Analyst philippe.houchois@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3474 Guoxi Chen, CFA Analyst S1460511020003 guoxi.chen@ubssecurities.com +86-213-866 8831 Autos ... and everything Regular readers of the EM product know that we place a lot of emphasis on the automobile sector â€“ in fact, our semi-annual Auto Theory of Everything (latest version published 23 February 2011) is one of the best places to take stock of the state of durable goods demand across the emerging world. As a result, we were very pleased to invite UBS global auto sector research head Philippe Houchois and China auto secto
3952940	2011-10-12 15:15:59	[alpha] copper and schtuff Fwd: LME Week: Industry Feedback From London : Goldman	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] copper and schtuff Fwd: LME Week: Industry Feedback From London : Goldman UPDATE 10 October 2011 Commodities LME Week: Industry Feedback From London Commodities \| Australia We met with a number of metal producers, consumers, and traders during the annual London Metals Exchange (LME) gathering in the first week of October. On balance, the mood was perhaps a little more positive than we had expected, although there is certainly an undercurrent of concern that business conditions could yet deteriorate more sharply. To date, demand for base metals is holding up well when compared with broader economic sentiment. â€¢ â€¢ Corporate executives do not appear to share investors' fears that China is headed for a "hard landing". In the developed markets, current demand levels are a little softer than in 1H2011, though not dramatically so. Downstream inventories are low, therefore limiting the potential for destocking. All of the companies we met with are struggling to reconcile the extent of the
1228286	2011-10-12 15:15:59	copper and schtuff Fwd: LME Week: Industry Feedback From London : Goldman	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	copper and schtuff Fwd: LME Week: Industry Feedback From London : Goldman UPDATE 10 October 2011 Commodities LME Week: Industry Feedback From London Commodities \| Australia We met with a number of metal producers, consumers, and traders during the annual London Metals Exchange (LME) gathering in the first week of October. On balance, the mood was perhaps a little more positive than we had expected, although there is certainly an undercurrent of concern that business conditions could yet deteriorate more sharply. To date, demand for base metals is holding up well when compared with broader economic sentiment. â€¢ â€¢ Corporate executives do not appear to share investors' fears that China is headed for a "hard landing". In the developed markets, current demand levels are a little softer than in 1H2011, though not dramatically so. Downstream inventories are low, therefore limiting the potential for destocking. All of the companies we met with are struggling to reconcile the extent of the fear in
2851675	2011-06-28 16:35:48	[alpha] ISLAMIC ISSUES 11-133 Preventing Radicalization in America (UNCLASSIFIED)	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] ISLAMIC ISSUES 11-133 Preventing Radicalization in America (UNCLASSIFIED) 100 National Security Preparedness Group Preventing Violent Radicalization in America June 2011 Disclaimer This report is the product of the Bipartisan Policy Centerâ€™s National Security Preparedness Group (NSPG). The findings and recommendations expressed herein are solely those of NSPG and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders or its board of directors. Preventing Violent Radicalization in America 1 National Security Preparedness Group CO-CHAIRS The Honorable Lee Hamilton Former Representative from Indiana and Co-Chair of the 9/11 Commission The Honorable Thomas Kean Former Governor of New Jersey and Co-Chair of the 9/11 Commission MEMBERS The Honorable Frances Townsend Former Homeland Security Advisor and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism The Honorable Edwin Meese III Former Attorney General The Honorable Dick Thornburgh F
1988994	2011-03-30 21:21:37	[alpha] Israel/Palestinian Violence	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Israel/Palestinian Violence 1 The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center News of Terrorism and the IsraeliPalestinian Conflict March 23-29, 2011 The bus bombed by terrorists in Jerusalem on March 23. A British woman was killed in the attack and almost 40 Israeli civilians were wounded (Israeli Government Press Office, March 24, 2011). Overview ï® Terrorist events this past week focused on the IED which exploded at a bus stop in Jerusalem near the International Convention Center. It killed a British subject and wounded 39 Israeli civilians. At this point it is unknown who carried out the attack. ï® The escalation in rocket and mortar shell fire which began on March 19 has waned (although sporadic rocket fire continues). This past week 13 rocket hits and 18 mortar shell hits were identified in Israeli territory. One of the rockets was a Grad which fell near the southern Israeli city of Ashdod. In response Israeli aircraft attacked a number of terrorist targets in the Gaz
5140456	2011-08-15 17:06:29	[alpha] Iran, Orgs boycotting Israel	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Iran, Orgs boycotting Israel 2 August 14, 2011 The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Jerusalem Day,1 marked on August 26 this year, is an annual Iranian-sponsored event in support of the Palestinian cause. The Iranian regime expects extensive participation in events in Iran, the Arab-Muslim world and the West (including the United States and Britain). The events are traditionally exploited for anti-Israeli antiWest incitement. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaking before the upper echelons of the Iranian regime (including Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran, and Hassan Firuzabadi, head of the armed forces) on August 7, on the occasion of Ramadan. He said he expected "a large audience" at Jerusalem Day events as "proof" of the Islamic nation's faith in the Iranian Islamic regime. 1 Its full name is "The International Day of Al-Quds;" in this study it will be referred to as Jerusalem Day. 175-11 2 Overview 1. On or around August 26 the Iranians mark Internat
2853693	2011-07-01 17:10:22	[alpha] Assorted intel bulletins	michael.wilson@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Assorted intel bulletins NO FORWARDING! Internal Stratfor use only -- Michael Wilson Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112 michael.wilson@stratfor.com CBRN Weekly CBRN Weekly Page 1 of 3 June 22, 2011 â€“ June 29, 2011 No. 26 of 2011 NYPD Counterterrorism Bureau Terrorism Threat Analysis Group Open Source News Roundup from CTB Information Resource Center Chemical Second Bipartisan Chemical Security Bill Clears House Committee Powder Bulk Solids, 06/24/11 Just weeks after the House Energy and Commerce Committee approved a seven-year extension of the current chemical security standards, the House Homeland Security Committee today followed suit, approving H.R. 901 by a bipartisan vote of 26 to 5. â€¦SOCMA welcomed the committeeâ€™s endorsement of the legislation which would extend the existing Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) by seven years to 2018 and give chemical facilities and the Department of Homeland
212821	2011-12-19 17:31:38	[alpha] NORKOR - Nomura risk reports	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com invest@stratfor.com
	[alpha] NORKOR - Nomura risk reports Global Equity Research Global INVESTMENT STRATEGY & MACRO Geopolitics North Korea: Through A Glass Darkly* An "Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night" Special Report KEY JUDGMENTS â€œThe only predictable thing about the Kim regime is its unpredictability.â€ Industry Overview The Economist, 29 May 2010 Alastair Newton +44 20 7102 3940 a.newton@nomura.com NI plc, London The sinking of the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, has been a sharp reminder to markets â€“ which had for some years been relatively muted in the face of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula â€“ that regional stability cannot be taken for granted. We believe that there are several possible reasons for North Koreaâ€™s recent â€œbad behaviourâ€, not least South Koreaâ€™s hosting of the G20 summit in November, and that at least the majority of those reasons are unlikely to ease soon. However, we think it probable that tensions will ease somewhat shortly, albei
5381637	2011-12-19 17:31:38	NORKOR - Nomura risk reports	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com invest@stratfor.com
	NORKOR - Nomura risk reports Global Equity Research Global INVESTMENT STRATEGY & MACRO Geopolitics North Korea: Through A Glass Darkly* An "Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night" Special Report KEY JUDGMENTS â€œThe only predictable thing about the Kim regime is its unpredictability.â€ Industry Overview The Economist, 29 May 2010 Alastair Newton +44 20 7102 3940 a.newton@nomura.com NI plc, London The sinking of the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, has been a sharp reminder to markets â€“ which had for some years been relatively muted in the face of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula â€“ that regional stability cannot be taken for granted. We believe that there are several possible reasons for North Koreaâ€™s recent â€œbad behaviourâ€, not least South Koreaâ€™s hosting of the G20 summit in November, and that at least the majority of those reasons are unlikely to ease soon. However, we think it probable that tensions will ease somewhat shortly, albeit with r
5040784	2011-07-23 16:35:11	[alpha] INSIGHT -- NORWAY -- bio stuff on Anders Behring Breivik	mark.schroeder@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT -- NORWAY -- bio stuff on Anders Behring Breivik http://www.document.no/anders behring breivik/ Anders Behring Breiviks kommentarer hos Document.no 23.07.2011 kl. 04.50 Dette er en komplett oversikt over kommentarene Anders Behring Breivik har lagt igjen hos Document.no. 2010-10-29 14:08:40 Tusen takk for flott innsats til nÃ¥, Hans og Document. Dere gjÃ¸r en utrolig viktig jobb og regnes i dag for Ã¥ vÃ¦re en av svÃ¦rt fÃ¥ ideologisk alternative stemmer. Og dere BLIR lagt merke til fra landets stortingsrepresentanter og journalister. Jeg vil til og med pÃ¥stÃ¥ at Document har blitt en politisk maktfaktor i Norge, da vi alle vet at landets eliter smugleser Document ukentlig!:-) Dere fortsetter Ã¥ gjÃ¸re Norge en stor tjeneste!:-) Jeg Ã¸nsker imidlertid Ã¥ komme med litt konstruktiv kritikk nÃ¥r det gjelder Documents organisatoriske og Ã¸konomiske planer. VÃ¦r sÃ¥ snill og ikke ta det personlig:) Med tanke pÃ¥ Documents beskjedne Ã¸konomi og at det i
3985245	2011-10-05 12:07:50	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7907 - EU001	ben.preisler@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7907 - EU001 SOURCE: EU001 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: STRATFOR Confed Source PUBLICATION: Yes SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B SPECIAL HANDLING: none SOURCE HANDLER: Benjamin Contains fresh news. Please distribute immediately Sources say... No. 7907 DG Communication Brussels, Wednesday, 5 October 2011, at 11:00 Distribute only to Commission Officials & Agents Editor: Miguel Orozco Tel 60933 MOODY'S SHARPLY CUTS ITALY'S DEBT RATING (AFP) - Deux semaines apres Standard and Poor's, l'agence Moody's a severement degrade mardi soir la notation de l'Italie en raison des risques pesant sur le financement de sa dette colossale, de l'atonie de la croissance et des "incertitudes politiques". Alors que la plupart des analystes s'attendaient `a une degradation d'un ou de deux crans, Moody's a abaisse la note de l'Italie de trois crans `a "A2" contre "Aa2" auparavant et
5219163	2011-07-23 16:35:11	INSIGHT -- NORWAY -- bio stuff on Anders Behring Breivik	mark.schroeder@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	INSIGHT -- NORWAY -- bio stuff on Anders Behring Breivik http://www.document.no/anders behring breivik/ Anders Behring Breiviks kommentarer hos Document.no 23.07.2011 kl. 04.50 Dette er en komplett oversikt over kommentarene Anders Behring Breivik har lagt igjen hos Document.no. 2010-10-29 14:08:40 Tusen takk for flott innsats til nÃ¥, Hans og Document. Dere gjÃ¸r en utrolig viktig jobb og regnes i dag for Ã¥ vÃ¦re en av svÃ¦rt fÃ¥ ideologisk alternative stemmer. Og dere BLIR lagt merke til fra landets stortingsrepresentanter og journalister. Jeg vil til og med pÃ¥stÃ¥ at Document har blitt en politisk maktfaktor i Norge, da vi alle vet at landets eliter smugleser Document ukentlig!:-) Dere fortsetter Ã¥ gjÃ¸re Norge en stor tjeneste!:-) Jeg Ã¸nsker imidlertid Ã¥ komme med litt konstruktiv kritikk nÃ¥r det gjelder Documents organisatoriske og Ã¸konomiske planer. VÃ¦r sÃ¥ snill og ikke ta det personlig:) Med tanke pÃ¥ Documents beskjedne Ã¸konomi og at det i alle fa
5280153	2011-10-28 08:46:05	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Russia - Risk On Or Risk Off?	richmond@core.stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Russia - Risk On Or Risk Off? 104 abï£ UBS Investment Research Russian Strategy Balanced outlook, but we remain defensive Global Equity Research Russia Equity Strategy Market Comment 18 October 2011 A volatile market driven by global risk aversion The Russian equity market came under intense pressure in the last two months as a result of rising risk aversion stemming from European debt woes and global growth worries. Conviction is likely to remain low, volatility elevated and rangetrading to prevail. While the outlook is now more balanced, we prefer to wait for more clarity and remain defensive. Russiaâ€™s fundamentals remain intactâ€¦so far We believe the current situation is more benign than in 2008. Leverage ratios of the stocks that we cover have halved and maturity structures lengthened. The government continues to run a fiscal surplus, monetary policies are more efficient, and liquidity pressure is less acute. In the short term, growth ra
2644415	2011-06-29 13:59:23	[alpha] INSIGHT - Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: CSIS (4), DHS (2) and EPIC	ben.preisler@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: CSIS (4), DHS (2) and EPIC -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Fwd: Fwd: CSIS (4), DHS (2) and EPIC Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2011 06:50:43 -0500 From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> To: 'watchofficer' <watchofficer@stratfor.com> The information contained in this email is considered confidential and sensitive in nature, as well as sensitive but unclassified, and/or legally privileged information. It is not to be released to the media, the general public, or to personnel who do not have a "need-to-know." This information is not to be posted on the Internet, disseminated through unsecured channels, or sent to personal email accounts. It is solely for the use of the intended recipient(s). Unauthorized interception, review, use or disclosure is prohibited and may violate applicable laws, including the Electronic Communications Privacy Act. If you a
3898910	2011-09-30 18:52:08	[alpha] Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Backgrounder on Guyana & neighbors - VZ301	marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Backgrounder on Guyana & neighbors - VZ301 SOURCE: VZ301 PUBLICATION: Yes ATTRIBUTION: Venezuelan Sources SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected stratfor source in caracas SOURCE Reliability : B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha SOURCE HANDLER: Karen See attached for a deep dive into oil and gas prospects in the Guiannas -- of possible interest to StratCap ---------- Mensaje reenviado ---------- Hay que leerlo con detenimiento. AÂ DeepÂ DiveÂ intoÂ SouthÂ AmericanÂ E&PÂ TheÂ Guianas:Â WelcomeÂ toÂ theÂ JungleÂ MattÂ PortilloÂ AnishÂ KapadiaÂ Â MarchÂ 18,Â 2011Â ImportantÂ DisclosuresÂ beginÂ onÂ pageÂ 18Â ofÂ thisÂ documentÂ TheÂ Guianas:Â WhyÂ shouldÂ youÂ care?Â IfÂ youÂ ownÂ Repsol,Â Murphy,Â Tullow,Â YPF,Â orÂ CanacolÂ youÂ shouldÂ care.Â Â TheÂ purestÂ playÂ isÂ CanadianÂ CGXÂ whichÂ isÂ
3917970	2011-09-30 13:45:51	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7901 - EU001	ben.preisler@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7901 - EU001 SOURCE: EU001 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: STRATFOR Confed Source PUBLICATION: Yes SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B SPECIAL HANDLING: none SOURCE HANDLER: Benjamin Contains fresh news. Please distribute immediately Sources say... No. 7901 DG Communication Brussels, Friday, 30 September 2011, at 11:20 Distribute only to Commission Officials & Agents Editor: Miguel Orozco Tel 60933 EURO ZONE INFLATION JUMPS TO 3 % (Reuters) - Euro zone annual consumer prices unexpectedly rose in September to 3.0 percent, data showed on Friday, and followed surprisingly higher inflation in Germany that could exclude an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week. Expectations had been growing among investors of a possible interest rate cut to support the weakening European economy as the region's debt crisis saps business confidence and raises the spec
5466617	2011-09-18 18:29:00	[alpha] INSIGHT - RUSSIA - new Cauc Emerites Report	goodrich@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - RUSSIA - new Cauc Emerites Report a report of the csis russia and eurasia program Getting the Caucasus Emirate Right 1800 K Street, NW \| Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 \| Fax: (202) 775-3199 E-mail: books@csis.org \| Web: www.csis.org Author Gordon M. Hahn August 2011 Ã‹\|xHSKITCy06 650zv*:+:!:+:! a report of the csis russia and eurasia program Getting the Caucasus Emirate Right Author Gordon M. Hahn August 2011 About CSIS At a time of new global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to decisionmakers in government, international institutions, the private sector, and civil society. A bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS wa
1024449	2011-04-28 19:37:16	[alpha] INSIGHT- MYANMAR/CHINA/ENERGY/CT- Dam Burma and its pipelines- Do not Forward	michael.wilson@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT- MYANMAR/CHINA/ENERGY/CT- Dam Burma and its pipelines- Do not Forward SOURCE: N/A ATTRIBUTION: stratfor source SOURCE DESCRIPTION: my man in myanmar PUBLICATION: No SOURCE RELIABILITY: A ITEM CREDIBILITY: no idea DISTRIBUTION: alpha SPECIAL HANDLING: None SOURCE HANDLER: Sean Ok I just tried to send this and the file is too huge. Below is the first couple pages/intro and if you want the attachment i will send it to you. Attached is a paper that the source did a lot of the research for. Probably more than you ever wanted to know about China-Burma when it comes to dams, pipelines and energy projects. Some of it is about railroads too. I'm not sure how good it is, but it has a bunch of on-the-ground research that no one else is doing there. There's also some CT stuff, but I think that is all open source (and I will probably make them cite stratfor). The editor is french and so the english may be very messy. It is current
86882	2011-07-06 15:21:39	[alpha] Fwd: Russia reveals list of terrorists and terror sponsors	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: Russia reveals list of terrorists and terror sponsors -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Russia reveals list of terrorists and terror sponsors Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 08:15:39 -0500 From: David Dafinoiu <david@dafinoiu.com> To: Russia has made public a previously confidential list of people and organizations foun\d to be involved in laundering money and funding terrorism. AThe list of individuals and companies convicted of involvement in financing terrorism was published by the government-owned Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper on Wednesday. The document consists of two parts. The first part, based on official UN indexes and presented by the Russian Foreign Ministry, includes foreign individuals and international organizations. The second, from the Russian Ministry of Justice, gives the names of individuals and organizations linked to Russia. The list includes such international ter
3937952	2011-09-29 16:52:00	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7900, with strong accent on EFSF - EU001	ben.preisler@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7900, with strong accent on EFSF - EU001 SOURCE: EU001 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: STRATFOR Confed Source PUBLICATION: Yes SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B SPECIAL HANDLING: none SOURCE HANDLER: Benjamin Contains fresh news. Please distribute immediately Sources say... No. 7900 DG Communication Brussels, Thursday, 29 September 2011, at 16:30 Distribute only to Commission Officials & Agents Editor: Miguel Orozco Tel 60933 GERMAN MPs GIVE MASSIVE SUPPORT TO BOOSTED EU BAILOUT FUND (AFP) = Le parlement allemand a approuve jeudi `a une tres large majorite l'elargissement du fonds de secours de la zone euro, rassurant sur l'engagement de la premiere economie europeenne `a soutenir ses partenaires. 523 deputes au sein de l'assemblee qui compte 620 membres ont vote "oui", a annonce le president de l'assemblee Norbert Lammert. L'Allemagne est le onzieme pays `a app
3972118	2011-10-10 14:26:08	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners 20 UBS EM Client Conference Call: Copper for Beginners So what is it about copper? Among all the "industrial" metals this one is ... well a bit different. Is it a proxy for the global production cycle? A leading indicator of the Chinese economy? A reflection of global liquidity conditions? Driven by stocks? Driven by flows? Or something else entirely? And most important, what is copper telling us right now? Luckily we have in-house experts Julien Garran and Angus Staines from our highly regarded commodity research team to take us through the story from the top-down to detailed calls. Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011 Time: 09:00 (New York), 11 Oct 14:00 (London), 11 Oct 21:00 (HK/SG), 11 Oct 22:00 (Tokyo), 11 Oct Hosted by: Jonathan Anderson Global Emerging Market Economist, UBS UBS Speaker(s): ï‚· Julien Garran, Commodity Research ï‚· Angus Staines, Commodity Research Instructions to access call: There are two ways to access the
5034154	2011-10-08 15:47:17	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners	richmond@core.stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners 104 UBS EM Client Conference Call: Copper for Beginners So what is it about copper? Among all the "industrial" metals this one is ... well a bit different. Is it a proxy for the global production cycle? A leading indicator of the Chinese economy? A reflection of global liquidity conditions? Driven by stocks? Driven by flows? Or something else entirely? And most important, what is copper telling us right now? Luckily we have in-house experts Julien Garran and Angus Staines from our highly regarded commodity research team to take us through the story from the top-down to detailed calls. Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011 Time: 09:00 (New York), 11 Oct 14:00 (London), 11 Oct 21:00 (HK/SG), 11 Oct 22:00 (Tokyo), 11 Oct Hosted by: Jonathan Anderson Global Emerging Market Economist, UBS UBS Speaker(s): ï‚· Julien Garran, Commodity Research ï‚· Angus Staines, Commodity Research Instructions to access call: There are two ways to access the
3925143	2011-10-14 12:32:39	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Is Argentina Unraveling?	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Is Argentina Unraveling? 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Latin American Economic Comment Argentina: the long term is approaching Party on, Wayne Since 1Q04, public spending has risen by 400%, nominal wages by around 300%, real interest rates have averaged -8% (now at -13%), credit is growing at 45% y/y and key monetary aggregates at 40%. Throughout this period, the ARS/USD (along with key public utility rates) has barely risen. Unsurprisingly, the fiscal and external surpluses, the weak peso and foreign reserve accumulation â€“ key features of the economy in recent years â€“ are basically gone. Despite record high GDP growth and commodity prices, the primary surplus narrowed by more than 4 ppts of GDP during the 8 years of both Kirchnerâ€™s administrations. The good news for investors is that this time around financing has largely come from locals via taxes, inflation and assets in public entities, not from issuing market debt. Still dancin
5283753	2011-11-20 14:55:51	[alpha] Global Incident IED report	burton@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Global Incident IED report 2 GlobalIncidentMap.Com Open Source IED Report IED Explosions, Bomb Threats, Scares, Hoaxes, Thefts Of Explosives, And Other Explosive Plots 11-08-2011 â€“ 11-18-2011 â€¢ Bomb Incidents/Explosives/ Hoax Devices 2011-11-18 \| United States, Shreveport, LA \| [ktbs.com] LOUISIANA - Boys arrested after detonating acid bomb "A pair of 12-year-olds have been arrested in Shreveport for assembling and then detonating two makeshift "acid bombs" using materials they just bought at a discount store." Read the full article: http://www.ktbs.com/news/29805078/detail.html \| To view this incident at GlobalIncidentMap.com visit : http://www.globalincidentmap.com/eventdetail.php?ID=64925 2011-11-18 \| United States, Horsham, PA \| [PhillyBurbs.com] PENNSYLVANIA - Man held in bomb threat at Horsham pharmacy "A pharmacy was shut down and traffic jammed after what appeared to be a bomb was found in a car parked in a lot off Welsh Road in Horsham on Thursday evening." Read the full ar
5482575	2011-09-18 18:29:00	INSIGHT - RUSSIA - new Cauc Emerites Report	goodrich@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	INSIGHT - RUSSIA - new Cauc Emerites Report a report of the csis russia and eurasia program Getting the Caucasus Emirate Right 1800 K Street, NW \| Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 \| Fax: (202) 775-3199 E-mail: books@csis.org \| Web: www.csis.org Author Gordon M. Hahn August 2011 Ã‹\|xHSKITCy06 650zv*:+:!:+:! a report of the csis russia and eurasia program Getting the Caucasus Emirate Right Author Gordon M. Hahn August 2011 About CSIS At a time of new global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to decisionmakers in government, international institutions, the private sector, and civil society. A bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedica
1219592	2011-10-14 12:32:39	Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Is Argentina Unraveling?	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Is Argentina Unraveling? 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Latin American Economic Comment Argentina: the long term is approaching Party on, Wayne Since 1Q04, public spending has risen by 400%, nominal wages by around 300%, real interest rates have averaged -8% (now at -13%), credit is growing at 45% y/y and key monetary aggregates at 40%. Throughout this period, the ARS/USD (along with key public utility rates) has barely risen. Unsurprisingly, the fiscal and external surpluses, the weak peso and foreign reserve accumulation â€“ key features of the economy in recent years â€“ are basically gone. Despite record high GDP growth and commodity prices, the primary surplus narrowed by more than 4 ppts of GDP during the 8 years of both Kirchnerâ€™s administrations. The good news for investors is that this time around financing has largely come from locals via taxes, inflation and assets in public entities, not from issuing market debt. Still dancing but the
1227304	2011-10-10 14:26:08	Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: UBS EM Client Conference Call - Copper for Beginners 20 UBS EM Client Conference Call: Copper for Beginners So what is it about copper? Among all the "industrial" metals this one is ... well a bit different. Is it a proxy for the global production cycle? A leading indicator of the Chinese economy? A reflection of global liquidity conditions? Driven by stocks? Driven by flows? Or something else entirely? And most important, what is copper telling us right now? Luckily we have in-house experts Julien Garran and Angus Staines from our highly regarded commodity research team to take us through the story from the top-down to detailed calls. Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011 Time: 09:00 (New York), 11 Oct 14:00 (London), 11 Oct 21:00 (HK/SG), 11 Oct 22:00 (Tokyo), 11 Oct Hosted by: Jonathan Anderson Global Emerging Market Economist, UBS UBS Speaker(s): ï‚· Julien Garran, Commodity Research ï‚· Angus Staines, Commodity Research Instructions to access call: There are two ways to access the conferen
1234236	2011-10-08 15:47:17		richmond@core.stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	104 UBS EM Client Conference Call: Copper for Beginners So what is it about copper? Among all the "industrial" metals this one is ... well a bit different. Is it a proxy for the global production cycle? A leading indicator of the Chinese economy? A reflection of global liquidity conditions? Driven by stocks? Driven by flows? Or something else entirely? And most important, what is copper telling us right now? Luckily we have in-house experts Julien Garran and Angus Staines from our highly regarded commodity research team to take us through the story from the top-down to detailed calls. Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011 Time: 09:00 (New York), 11 Oct 14:00 (London), 11 Oct 21:00 (HK/SG), 11 Oct 22:00 (Tokyo), 11 Oct Hosted by: Jonathan Anderson Global Emerging Market Economist, UBS UBS Speaker(s): ï‚· Julien Garran, Commodity Research ï‚· Angus Staines, Commodity Research Instructions to access call: There are two ways to access the conference call: Pre-registration to prevent dial in delays, or d
3988797	2011-10-20 23:01:15	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Copper For Beginners (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Copper For Beginners (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Copper For Beginners (Transcript) 20 October 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 The meek shall inherit the earth, but not the mineral rights. â€“ J. Paul Getty Julien Garran Analyst julien.garran@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3540 Angus Staines, CFA Analyst angus.staines@ubs.com +44-20-7567 9798 How to think about copper We devoted last weekâ€™s entire EM conference call to a specific good: copper. If that raises eyebrows, it probably shouldnâ€™t. With the obvious exceptions of gold and perhaps oil, copper is the one commodity that generates the most questions for us as macroeconomists. Underlying demand is highly tied to both China and the global cycle, and its extraordinarily volatile pricing is very dependent on global liquidity conditions as well. So for a
5104615	2011-08-24 19:43:32	[alpha] Goldman Sachs assessment on Libyan oil resumption	bhalla@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Goldman Sachs assessment on Libyan oil resumption August 22, 2011 Energy Weekly Commodities Research Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. While we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent events have increased the likelihood that Libyan production could end up closer to 585 thousand b/d, which would push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months. Practically all crude production and export facilities are now reported in the hands of the opposition forcesâ€¦ Libyan opposition forces advanced into Tripoli over the weekend, raising the possibility that crude oil production normalizes in coming months. News reports suggest that the opposition force
5144270	2011-08-23 04:37:49	[alpha] Fwd: FW: GS Commodity Research -- Energy Weekly: Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: FW: GS Commodity Research -- Energy Weekly: Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time August 22, 2011 Energy Weekly Commodities Research Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. While we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent events have increased the likelihood that Libyan production could end up closer to 585 thousand b/d, which would push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months. Practically all crude production and export facilities are now reported in the hands of the opposition forcesâ€¦ Libyan opposition forces advanced into Tripoli over the weekend, raising the possibility that crude oil production normalizes
5021484	2011-06-08 17:46:35	[alpha] STANDARD CHARTERED NOTE Fwd: SAFE economist thinks outloud on K/A opening and CNY	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] STANDARD CHARTERED NOTE Fwd: SAFE economist thinks outloud on K/A opening and CNY SAFE economist Guan Tao published this piece on the 40 Economist's Forum today - headlines appeared on the wires - and then the piece disappeared. You can check if its reappeared here: http://www.cf40.org.cn/plus/view.php?aid=4076 It's a very interesting piece. Guan makes the following points: !CUR The next step for the CNY must be (1) more two-way flexibility AND (2) more open capital account (K/A) at the same time. (This is in contrast to other views, eg Yu Yongding, who we wrote about last week), who argue you need to get CNY in a right place before you open up the K/A, since the later can be very destabilising). !CUR Now is a window of opportunity to do these things - the lower trade balance suggests there is no strong basis for big appreciation, and looking at house and equity prices relative to elsewhere, the
5324206	2011-11-29 17:15:04	[alpha] CHINA: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK REPORT - RMB Insider	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] CHINA: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK REPORT - RMB Insider 2 l Global Research l The Renminbi Insider \| 09:00 GMT 21 November 2011 Rebuilding after the storm Contents Focus â€“ Becoming the worldâ€Ÿs currency CNH market development â€“ Rebuilding after the storm FX â€“ Our new CNY and CNH forecasts Credit â€“ Value in Dim Sum bonds 2 8 12 16 Economics â€“ The meaning of micro-loosening 22 Appendix 27 Eddie Cheung, +852 3983 8566 Eddie.Cheung@sc.com Kelvin Lau, +852 3983 8565 Kelvin.KH.Lau@sc.com Robert Minikin, +852 3983 8567 Robert.Minikin@sc.com Shankar Narayanaswamy, +65 6596 8249 Shankar.Narayanaswamy@sc.com Stephen Green, +852 3983 8556 Stephen.Green@sc.com Highlights ï‚· Global market volatility finally hit the offshore Renminbi market in late September. CNH depreciated sharply, Dim Sum credit sold off, and participants were left wondering how viable the CNH market was. The exhaustion of the conversion quota for CNY trade exacerbated the volatility. The qu
5498811	2011-12-19 12:03:38	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - The Endless Turkey Saga (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM Focus - The Endless Turkey Saga (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong The Endless Turkey Saga (Transcript) 19 December 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth. â€” Ludwig Boerne Reinhard Cluse Economist reinhard.cluse@ubs.com +44-20-7568 6722 Serhan Gok Analyst serhan.gok@ubs.com +90-212-319 2065 Still waiting for bad news One year ago we, together with most economists on the street, began to notice that the Turkish economic situation was beginning to look precarious. Domestic demand and credit growth were accelerating to a dizzying pace, local interest rates had fallen to levels that corporates and households had never seen before, the external deficit was both the largest and the most rapidly-expanding in the major EM world â€“ and in the face of all this the central b
3964502	2011-10-03 12:24:26	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7903 - EU001	ben.preisler@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] INSIGHT - EU - Sources say 7903 - EU001 SOURCE: EU001 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: STRATFOR Confed Source PUBLICATION: Yes SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B SPECIAL HANDLING: none SOURCE HANDLER: Benjamin Contains fresh news. Please distribute immediately Sources say... No. 7903 DG Communication Brussels, Monday, 3 October 2011, at 11:30 Distribute only to Commission Officials & Agents Editor: Miguel Orozco Tel 60933 GREECE LIMITS BUDGET DEFICIT MORE THAN TROIKA PREDICTED (AFP) - La Grece a confirme dimanche qu'elle n'atteindrait pas l'objectif de reduction du deficit public fixe en juin pour 2011, mais a redresse la barre par rapport au derapage constate en septembre par ses creanciers, apres l'introduction de nouvelles mesures d'austerite. Le projet de budget 2012 contenant les nouveaux objectifs, qui sera depose au parlement lundi, a ete adopte dimanche soir lors d'un conseil des min
113397	1970-01-01 01:00:00	Goldman Sachs assessment on Libyan oil resumption	bhalla@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Goldman Sachs assessment on Libyan oil resumption August 22, 2011 Energy Weekly Commodities Research Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. While we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent events have increased the likelihood that Libyan production could end up closer to 585 thousand b/d, which would push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months. Practically all crude production and export facilities are now reported in the hands of the opposition forcesâ€¦ Libyan opposition forces advanced into Tripoli over the weekend, raising the possibility that crude oil production normalizes in coming months. News reports suggest that the opposition forces now co
1228543	2011-10-20 23:01:15	Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Copper For Beginners (Transcript)	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: UBS EM Focus - Copper For Beginners (Transcript) 20 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong Copper For Beginners (Transcript) 20 October 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 The meek shall inherit the earth, but not the mineral rights. â€“ J. Paul Getty Julien Garran Analyst julien.garran@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3540 Angus Staines, CFA Analyst angus.staines@ubs.com +44-20-7567 9798 How to think about copper We devoted last weekâ€™s entire EM conference call to a specific good: copper. If that raises eyebrows, it probably shouldnâ€™t. With the obvious exceptions of gold and perhaps oil, copper is the one commodity that generates the most questions for us as macroeconomists. Underlying demand is highly tied to both China and the global cycle, and its extraordinarily volatile pricing is very dependent on global liquidity conditions as well. So for a surpris
1230942	2011-08-23 04:37:49	Fwd: FW: GS Commodity Research -- Energy Weekly: Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	Fwd: FW: GS Commodity Research -- Energy Weekly: Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time August 22, 2011 Energy Weekly Commodities Research Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. While we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent events have increased the likelihood that Libyan production could end up closer to 585 thousand b/d, which would push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months. Practically all crude production and export facilities are now reported in the hands of the opposition forcesâ€¦ Libyan opposition forces advanced into Tripoli over the weekend, raising the possibility that crude oil production normalizes in comi
1215057	2011-06-08 17:46:35	STANDARD CHARTERED NOTE Fwd: SAFE economist thinks outloud on K/A opening and CNY	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	STANDARD CHARTERED NOTE Fwd: SAFE economist thinks outloud on K/A opening and CNY SAFE economist Guan Tao published this piece on the 40 Economist's Forum today - headlines appeared on the wires - and then the piece disappeared. You can check if its reappeared here: http://www.cf40.org.cn/plus/view.php?aid=4076 It's a very interesting piece. Guan makes the following points: !CUR The next step for the CNY must be (1) more two-way flexibility AND (2) more open capital account (K/A) at the same time. (This is in contrast to other views, eg Yu Yongding, who we wrote about last week), who argue you need to get CNY in a right place before you open up the K/A, since the later can be very destabilising). !CUR Now is a window of opportunity to do these things - the lower trade balance suggests there is no strong basis for big appreciation, and looking at house and equity prices relative to elsewhere, there's eve
1228938	2011-11-29 17:15:04	CHINA: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK REPORT - RMB Insider	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	CHINA: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK REPORT - RMB Insider 2 l Global Research l The Renminbi Insider \| 09:00 GMT 21 November 2011 Rebuilding after the storm Contents Focus â€“ Becoming the worldâ€Ÿs currency CNH market development â€“ Rebuilding after the storm FX â€“ Our new CNY and CNH forecasts Credit â€“ Value in Dim Sum bonds 2 8 12 16 Economics â€“ The meaning of micro-loosening 22 Appendix 27 Eddie Cheung, +852 3983 8566 Eddie.Cheung@sc.com Kelvin Lau, +852 3983 8565 Kelvin.KH.Lau@sc.com Robert Minikin, +852 3983 8567 Robert.Minikin@sc.com Shankar Narayanaswamy, +65 6596 8249 Shankar.Narayanaswamy@sc.com Stephen Green, +852 3983 8556 Stephen.Green@sc.com Highlights ï‚· Global market volatility finally hit the offshore Renminbi market in late September. CNH depreciated sharply, Dim Sum credit sold off, and participants were left wondering how viable the CNH market was. The exhaustion of the conversion quota for CNY trade exacerbated the volatility. The quota has
1361163	2011-03-17 02:50:27	[alpha] JAPAN - Morgan Stanley Report	chris.farnham@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] JAPAN - Morgan Stanley Report MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH ASIA/PACIFIC Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Qing Wang Qing.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848 5220 Ernest Ho Ernest.Ho@morganstanley.com +852 2239 7818 Steven Zhang March 14, 2011 Steven.Zhang@morganstanley.com +86 21 2326 0029 China Economics How Important Is Japan to the Chinese Economy? Japan is an important trading partner and source of direct investment for China: A massive earthquake of 8.9 magnitude hit Japan on Friday, March 11. The earthquake and the subsequent tsunami have caused severe damage. Our thoughts go out to those affected by this devastating disaster. It is impossible to estimate the actual loss to the Japanese economy at the current juncture, but we present some facts that help shed light on how exposed the Chinese economy is to Japan. â€¢ In terms of trade by destinations / origins: In 2010, Japan remained one of Chinaâ€™s most important trade partners, accounting for about 8% of Chinaâ€™s total exports,
2945385	2011-07-14 03:07:55	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM By the Numbers - July 2011	richmond@stratfor.com	alpha@stratfor.com
	[alpha] Fwd: UBS EM By the Numbers - July 2011 35 abï£ UBS Investment Research Emerging Economic Focus Global Economics Research Emerging Markets Hong Kong EM By the Numbers (July 2011) 12 July 2011 www.ubs.com/economics Our guide to emerging market data â€“ by charts and figures: Jonathan Anderson Economist jonathan.anderson@ubs.com +852-2971 8515 Mandy Ong Associate Economist mandy.ong@ubs.com +65-6495 3085 GDP growth GDP by component Inflation Production indicators Money growth Credit growth Trade Balance of payments Exchange rates Interest rates Stock markets Market risk indicators Country charts Explanatory notes Data tables UBS forecast tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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