Gordon Brown is facing an escalating crisis of confidence inside the parliamentary Labour party as record numbers of his MPs apply to sit in the House of Lords after the next general election.
In the clearest indication to date that increasing numbers of Labour figures believe the party is heading for a heavy defeat at the hands of David Cameron, the Guardian has learned that at least 52 MPs have formally approached Downing Street to be given places in the upper house.
The MPs include current chairs of select committees as well as past and serving middle and junior ranking ministers, according to Labour sources. They account for a seventh of those elected at the last election.
The move by the Labour MPs comes as Brown faces the most perilous week of his premiership.
Ed Balls, the schools secretary, said yesterday Labour would perform badly in the European and local elections next Thursday.
"In European and local elections, [held] before a general election the governing parties tend not to do so well," Balls said at an election briefing. "That is going to happen to us. Of course it is. That is what happened in 2004."
Others were more blunt. "We are doomed," one senior Labour figure told the Guardian.
"We're all doing our bit in the elections but it is over for Labour."
Another Labour figure said the keen interest in the Lords shown by the party's MPs highlighted how disconnected senior figures are from the prime minister.
"They should look at how many peers Gordon has created – he is no fan of the upper house," one former minister said.
Brown is expected to try to assert his authority soon after the elections with a cabinet reshuffle.
It was the reshuffle last October, in which Peter Mandelson returned to the cabinet, which shored up Brown's position after ministers had been in semi-open revolt over the summer.
But there is already speculation in Labour circles about whether Brown will face a leadership challenge if Labour performs badly next week.
Alan Johnson, the health secretary, has attracted attention after he devoted the last bank holiday weekend to publishing an article calling for electoral reform. But some of the prime minister's strongest opponents at senior levels of the party are sceptical of a cabinet-led challenge.
There is a feeling that the cabinet had a chance last summer to move against Brown but David Miliband, the foreign secretary, blew his chances with a few poorly chosen interventions.
Hazel Blears, the communities secretary, seen as the most likely cabinet minister to resign in exasperation at the prime minister's performance, has been damaged after she failed to pay capital gains tax on the sale of a London flat. She has since paid back the amount.
One senior figure said there was a feeling of resignation that Brown would lead the party into the next election.
"This is the third time we have seen the movie," said a figure who agitated for a challenge last year. "The expenses row may actually help the prime minister. He will be able to say these are exceptional circumstances and that every party has been hit."
Polls indicate that the UK Independence party, which was thought to have reached the high water mark of its success in 2004, will be the main beneficiary of protest votes next Thursday. This would hit the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.
Balls gave an indication of the line that Brown is expected to use in the aftermath of the elections. "The polling we are seeing [shows] that in these elections [the expenses row] is going to impact on mainstream parties because it is probably going to persuade [voters] to stay at home," he said. "That will be a judgment on the whole political system rather than simply the government."
Balls, who will be one of Labour's main strategists for the general election, underlined one of the main frustrations felt by the prime minister: that Labour still occupies the right central ground territory to win the election – he believes Brown would preserve vital public services while Cameron would impose swingeing cuts – but it is difficult to frame a debate on substance in the current climate.
"If you have a serious discussion with a voter about the choices between the two parties, which takes more than five or 10 minutes, then actually people are very concerned about what the Conservatives say on the economy and on public services," Balls said.
"I don't think we are losing the debate on policy. Our challenge is to have the debate on policy. I was out on the doorstep in my constituency. There is a great deal of concern about the expenses. But people want to know about some of the wider issues around public spending, the economy and Europe."
Balls underlined the worries over the impact of the expenses row by saying it could take 10 years to restore public trust in politics. "It will take us not just months, it will be a very big task for this parliament and through the whole of the next one," he said.
The disclosure that 52 Labour MPs are looking to life in the Lords shows many figures believe Labour will struggle to fashion the debate in the way described by Balls.