Windows 7 and the 12-Step Boogie

So I'm discussing column topics with my Cranky Geeks cohort, Sebastian "Did-you-know-I-was-taught-guitar-by-Joe-Satriani?" Rupley. He tells me something that doesn't surprise me in the least: "Anything written about Windows 7 right now sends readership numbers through the roof!"

It's always been like that: Readers are generally interested in nothing but the latest operating system from Microsoft. This is especially true during the period of rave reviews that precedes the actual shipment of the real product. I suppose I could install and write a useless review talking about how fast it is when you have 20GB of main memory and the OS and ten apps are all in RAM. But so what? It's a "candidate," not the final product. It is, by definition, zombie code that people are supposed to find fault with, not praise.

These public betas are publicity stunts that really accomplish very little. Has anyone noticed the similarities to what happened with Windows Vista?

Here is Windows maven Paul Thurrott on Vista RC1

If you picked up the Beta 2 version of Windows Vista and were shocked—shocked, I say—at how horrible it was, please, it's time to give Vista another chance. Seriously. RC1 is a huge improvement. Huge.

Microsoft can point to hundreds of new features in its next client operating system—indeed, if Apple was handling the marketing, I'm pretty sure they'd trumpet an estimated 571 new features. But once you get past the obvious stuff like the new user interface, Aero animations and effects, and the absolutely massive security improvements in this release, there's plenty of "there" there.

He goes on to promote the fabulous features of Vista.

And, of course by typing "Vista is great" into Google I can back up Thurrott with a chorus of experts singing the praises of Vista. By typing "Vista sucks" I can get the opposite results. The point is, early praise and criticism is common, but there's generally more praise: The drum pounders who have to sell books or webcasts or magazines pound the loudest until the real feedback begins.

People will read this column as well, in search of insight or truth. Here's your insight: I call it The Microsoft New OS 12-Step Boogie.

Step 1: Public realization that the previous OS is a piece of crap burdened by too many patches. It has deteriorated—and everyone knows it.

Step 2: A code word appears in the press. It refers to a new OS from Microsoft. A buzz begins.

Step 3: Microsoft confirms that it is developing an all-new OS that will be the greatest thing ever.

Step 4: Microsoft announces a laundry list of features for the new OS citing improvements over the old OS.

Step 5: Discrepant information hits the media. The OS is ahead of schedule. The OS is behind schedule. Coding has not even started. The OS is almost done already.

Step 6: Some slick beta code is released; the Microsoft boosters get hold of it, and they fall all over themselves proclaiming how great it is. Nobody actually files any bug reports, and if they do nobody knows where they go.

Step 7: Various features that were "impossible to implement" are dropped from the product.

Step 8: A release candidate ships, and everyone goes bonkers over how great it is. (This is the phase Windows 7 is in.) "It's the best OS ever!"

Step 9: Some minor glitches are discovered, but nobody pays much attention to them since Microsoft says they'll be fixed when the final product ships. Not to worry.

Step 10: Sales of the previous OS start to fall, and Microsoft offers a free upgrade to buyers of computers with the old system.

Step 11: A true ship date is announced, and buyers line up the night before to get the first copies.

Step 12: Patch Tuesday begins immediately, as Redmond corrects a just-discovered security flaw. Endless patches ensue, and over time the OS bogs down under the weight of its own spaghetti code. Go to Step 1.

This system served Microsoft well until the Vista debacle, when Step 6 (the beta stage) was botched, creating a negative buzz that the company couldn't suppress. Microsoft was also taken in by the hybrid hard disk fiasco in which the OS had special hooks to optimize performance—hooks that consumers were never able to take advantage of.

This time around the company has gone back to basics, and Windows 7 should be a commercial hit with few complaints—at first. Hopefully the product will ship sooner rather than later to help revive the economy.

But if any of the lunatics out there don't think this OS will be patched to death and suffer the same fate as everything else Microsoft has done, then tell me: What mysterious transformation has the company undergone to make things different? Hello, patches! We're waiting for you!