By Michelle Grattan
The messages from the /Nielsen poll are mixed. Kevin Rudd will feel vindicated by the backing for a greater federal role in hospitals funding. He'll be concerned that Tony Abbott's approval ratings are headed north while his own go south.
But Labor can draw comfort from still being in the electoral box seat, and from most people believing it will win.
Rudd has been saying that voters want a bigger role for Canberra in hospital funding. His immediate issue, however, is not public opinion — it is difficult premiers, especially John Brumby, and arguments over the detail of the federal plan unveiled last week. The Prime Minister can use the poll to buttress his case. But at a stretch Brumby could argue that people are just wanting more federal money. Tony Abbott will be smiling, as his approval ratings continue to rise. All this when Abbott last week was on a sort of ''boys' own'' tour of central Australia that was strong on image but light on content.
Pollster John Stirton gives a reality check. ''While Mr Rudd's approval has fallen to a low of 57 per cent, it is worth recalling that John Howard had an approval rating lower than Mr Rudd's current rating for around 75 per cent of his time in office. While Mr Abbott's fortunes are on the rise, the average approval rating for opposition leaders over the last 15 years have been 49 per cent, so Mr Abbott's rating is pretty much on average.''
Abbott undoubtedly is increasing the pressure on the Prime Minister. But the evidence suggests that people haven't got to the stage of thinking seriously about Abbott as an alternative. Nearly seven in 10 believe Labor will win. In the past, voters have been pretty good predictors of election results. Unless and until they believe Abbott has a prospect of winning, they won't be turning rigorous eyes on him.
Abbott's challenge is to boost the Coalition's primary vote, which is 42 per cent, by about 3 percentage points at the expense of Labor. All else being equal, that would put the Coalition ahead about 51-49 per cent.
Soon, he has to start to mix the positive messages with the negatives. That's when the going will get hard for him.
Michelle Grattan is 's political editor.