Spectre of civil war stalks divided Thailand

For the second time in less than two years the party of Thaksin Shinwatra, the hero of Thailand's rural poor, has been dissolved by the Thai courts.

In May 2007, following the military coup which overthrew Mr Thaksin in 2006, his Thai Rak Thai party was dissolved for election fraud. It was the most electorally successful party in Thai history.

The generals who overthrew Mr Thaksin set about writing a new constitution which stacked the rules against political parties. If a single executive member is convicted of electoral fraud the entire party must be dissolved and all its executives banned from politics for five years.

That is what happened today to the People Power Party (PPP). The PPP was a successor to Thai Rak Thai, set up under Mr Thaksin's patronage, which won elections almost a year ago. It's members will now try to struggle on in yet another pro-Thaksin vehicle, the Puea Thai (For Thais) party.

Dr Giles Ungpakorn, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University said the dissolution of Thailand's ruling party today is "a second for the rich," following the overthrow of Mr Thaksin two years ago. Mr Thaksin is now in self imposed exile, after being convicted in absentia and sentenced to two years for abuse of power.

Thaksin was a billionaire businessman, but his party built its unprecedented electoral success by delivering policies such as cheap health care and micro-credit for the poor. If the anti-government forces represented by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who are blockading Bangkok's airports, get their way future parliaments will be largely appointed to prevent the poor from voting the Thaksinites back in.

How will the poor react at a second attempt to deny their chosen government its democratic mandate? Fears are growing that the government's supporters in the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) could go on the rampage leading to widespread civil strife.

In an editorial today, the Bangkok Post wrote, "It now seems that violence can not be avoided. Some even predict what has been unthinkable for 700 years: a civil war." A genuine civil war is probably impossible for now - Thailand has only one army.

But divisions are deep. On side are the "red shirts" of the DAAD, on the other the "yellow shirts" of the PAD, blockading the airport and demanding that all traces of Thakin's allies be removed from government.

The yellow shirts have the army and the palace on their side, but they can only win by denying the majority of Thais their rights to one person one vote - hence their fear of Thaksin's popularity and their demand to replace parliament with a mostly appointed body.