Harry Potter Should Work His Magic

When Warner Bros. decided almost at the last minute to push Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince from its original November 2008 opening date to July 15, 2009, fans were furious. Some even demanded a boycott of the studio.

But the move will likely prove to have been a smart one. The Time Warner film unit had a massively successful summer with The Dark Knight, which earned $1 billion at the box office worldwide. The studio didn't really need another huge hit in 2008, especially if it meant relying on riskier films like Terminator Salvation in the summer of 2009.

With Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince scheduled to open Wednesday and the surprisingly strong box office gross of The Hangover ($300 million worldwide so far), Warner Bros. has a good chance of replicating last summer's success. The latest Potter installment is expected to earn $185 million over five days this weekend, according to Exhibitor Relations.

Hollywood insiders are watching to see if the movie can beat The Dark Knight's record opening day gross of $67 million. With more than 2,500 midnight screenings already sold out, Potter stands a chance. The best one-day opening for a Harry Potter movie so far was 2007's Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which earned $44 million on its opening day. But anticipation for that movie wasn't nearly as high as it is for Half-Blood Prince, since it's been two years since Order of the Phoenix. And this week's release will have more seats available to fill.

"Opening in 4,275 theaters, this will be the fourth-widest release ever," says Exhibitor Relations' Jeff Bock.

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs is expected to come in second with $18 million. The film has proved to be a huge hit for News Corp.'s Fox Films, earning $323 million at the international box office, $200 million more than it has earned domestically.

Bruno, which opened in first place last weekend, should fall to fourth place behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Bock expects ticket sales for the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy to fall 60% from last weekend to $12 million.